Gary Welsh Last Ominous Post R.I.P.

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Friday, April 29, 2016

New Poll Shows Trump Up In Indiana By Nine Points

Every poll taken in Indiana shows Donald Trumpleading his Republican primary opponents in next week's primary election. The latest poll released by ARG gives Trump a 9-point advantage over his nearest competitor, Ted Cruz. Trump leads Cruz by a 41-32% margin. Kasich is far behind with just 21% of the vote. Trump is leading in almost every category, including likely Republican voters, young and older voters, male and even female voters. 

A second poll released by a Republican pollster, Clout Research, shows the race much closer. Trump is ahead by only two percentage points in that poll over Cruz, 37-35%. Kasich trails with only 16% of the vote.

If I'm not around to see the vote results, my prediction is that Trump wins Indiana with just shy of 50% of the vote, but he will carry every single congressional district and sweep the delegate race--assuming the party-chosen delegates honor their rules-bound commitment to support the winner on the first ballot. Most of those delegates favored John Kasich at the time they were chosen. Only two of the delegates named by state party officials publicly declared their support for Trump, although some have indicated they would feel obligated to support the voters' wishes.

Cruz has made Indiana his last stand. He threw a hail mary pass earlier in the week by naming Carly Fiorina as his running mate in hopes of attracting female voters in next week's primary election. He snagged Gov. Pence's endorsement today, although his favorability numbers aren't so hot right now and that endorsement is likely to further infuriate already alienated Republican and independent voters. Cruz has also taken up residence in the state this past week, criss-crossing the state with multiple appearances. His crowds have been small compared to Trump's rallies.

Trump has had fewer appearances in Indiana, but his rallies have drawn far larger and more enthusiastic crowds. He returns this weekend for rallies in Fort Wayne on Sunday at Memorial Coliseum, and he will close out his campaigning in Indiana at the Century Center in South Bend Monday evening. Click here for information on those events.

Early voting, which started off very slow, has surged and appears to be well above average for presidential primary elections in Indiana in many counties now. Those new voters will favor Trump, not Cruz. The Democratic primary will draw far fewer voters. Clinton should handily defeat Bernie Sanders by a 58-42% margin, helped by those who might have otherwise voted in the Democratic primary choosing to take a Republican ballot instead.

UPDATE: There's a real outlier poll added to the mix late today. IPFW/Downs Center in Fort Wayne released a poll showing Cruz with a double-digit lead of 45 to 29% over Trump. Adding that lopsided poll into the mix makes the RealClearPolitics average show a very tight race, with Trump up about 2%, 37.5-35.2%. 

Gary R. Welsh at 12:21 PM

BREAKING: Blogger Who Tried To Connect CRUZ’S DAD With Lee Harvey Oswald Found DEAD

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The blogger who claimed that Ted Cruz’s dad was in connection with John F. Kennedy’s murder has been found dead in his home. Do you think that this has anything to do with his blog post about Cruz? Or was he simply depressed?

    A prolific Indiana political blogger wrote an ominous post last week predicting a Donald Trump victory in his state — and soon afterward committed suicide, police said.

    Gary Welsh, a lawyer who managed his Advance Indiana blog since 2005, was found in his Indianapolis apartment around 8 a.m. Sunday with a gunshot wound, according to the Indianapolis Star. Officers found him in a stairwell, dead at the scene, according to a police report
Police ruled Welsh’s death a suicide, but have not released any details about what may have motivated it.

…

Just days before he was found dead, Welsh, 53, filed a final post for his blog, predicting Trump will win the Hoosier State’s GOP presidential primary Tuesday
But his post took dark turn, even for a piece discussing a Donald Trump victory.

“If I’m not around to see the vote results, my prediction is that Trump wins Indiana with just shy of 50% of the vote,” Welsh wrote.

Two readers seemed confused or concerned about his cryptic comment Welsh, 53, wrote the widely followed conservative blog Advance Indiana, which he launched more than a decade ago. He also was a practicing attorney.

The Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department’s incident report says officers were dispatched to the Lockerbie Glove Factory Lofts, 430 N. Park Ave., before 8 a.m. Sunday after receiving a report of a person found shot in the stairwell of the building. The witnesses who called 911 reported that a gun was next to the body

IMPD Capt. Richard Riddle said he expects an autopsy will be conducted Monday. He said the Marion County Coroner’s Office will determine the official cause of death.

Welsh was known for hard-hitting blog posts that took swipes at both Democrats and Republicans.

    His final post, published Friday, summarized the latest poll results in the GOP presidential primary battle between Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

    Read more: IBJ

Here is a portion about the blog post from Welsh about Ted Cruz’s father and his alleged connection to Lee Harvey Oswald:

    Anyone who has studied the assassination of President John F. Kennedy has understood the key role Cuban-Americans working for the CIA played in the intelligence community plot to kill Kennedy in Dallas, Texas in 1963. Government disinformation agents immediately played up Lee Harvey Oswald’s supposed ties to the Fair Play for Cuba Committee in New Orleans prior to Kennedy’s assassination, which was supposedly a pro-Castro organization created by the Soviet Union. More realistically, it was a CIA front group since most of the people associated with the organization in New Orleans, including Oswald, had all worked for the CIA in some capacity. Warren Commission records proving Oswald’s ties to the CIA and FBI have remained sealed since the release of the Commission’s widely-discredited report in 1964 claiming the assassination was the lone work of Oswald.

    Reporters looking into the murky background of the Cuban-immigrant father of Sen. Ted Cruz have uncovered a number of inconsistencies in biographical claims in Sen. Cruz’s book that his father had fled to the U.S. in 1957 as an insurgent fighting the Batista regime with only a $100 sewn into his underwear. Newly-reported information by independent investigator Wayne Madsen ties Rafael Bienvenido Cruz to Oswald’s work for the supposedly pro-Castro group in New Orleans during the summer of 1963.

    Madsen claims that one of the Cubans pictured with Oswald handing out pamphlets for Fair Play outside the International Trade Mart in August, 1963 is Rafael Cruz. The ITM’s founder, Clay Shaw, worked for the CIA and was the only other man in the U.S. to face criminal charges in connection with the Kennedy assassination, when NOLA district attorney James Garrison brought charges in what he contended was a wide government conspiracy to assassinate Kennedy. Shaw was acquitted of the charges and Garrison humiliated after federal agencies worked hand-in-hand with mainstream media to discredit his case.

    Cruz’s Cuban father, also named Rafael Cruz, operated an electronic business in Matanzas, Cuba tied to the American company, RCA. While reporters have been able to confirm an instance where the elder Cruz was arrested by Cuban police and brutally beaten, reporters have found no confirmation the arrest had anything to do with work for forces supporting Castro’s efforts to overthrow the pro-American Batista regime. After arriving by a ferry boat from Cuba in Key West, Florida in 1957, Cruz’ father made his way to Austin, Texas where he managed to enroll at the University of Texas and earn a degree in mathematics in 1961.

    Read more: Advance Indiana

SALON: ‘Devastating’ ‘Clinton Cash’ Documentary Set to Rock Cannes Next Week

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by BREITBART NEWS12 May 20161,469

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Brendan Gauthier writes in Salon:

“Clinton Clash,” premiering at the Cannes Film Festival on May 16, is a “devastating” documentary, according to MSNBC, alleging Bill and Hillary Clinton used the Clinton Foundation to “help billionaires make shady deals around the world with corrupt dictators, all while enriching themselves to the tune of millions.”

The film, written and produced by Breitbart News executive chairman Stephen K. Bannon and directed by M.A. Taylor, is based on the New York Times bestselling book of the same name (subtitled “The Untold Story of How and Why Foreign Governments and Businesses Helped Make Bill and Hillary Rich”) by Peter Schweizer.

Read the rest here:

Watch the “Clinton Cash” trailer below:

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TIME: ‘Clinton Cash’ Is a ‘Scathing Broadside Aimed at Persuading Liberals’

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by BREITBART NEWS12 May 2016412

Philip Elliot pens the followingreview for TIME Magazine of the new documentary “Clinton Cash,” based on the bestselling book by Peter Schweizer. Read the excerpt below.

It would be easy to dismiss an hour-long film adaptation of Peter Schweizer’s book about the charitable-political-nonprofit complex of Bill and Hillary Clinton as nothing more than conservative propaganda. But sitting in a Manhattan screening room late Wednesday, it quickly became clear that conservatives weren’t the intended audience for Clinton Cash.

Environmentalists. Anti-nuke activists. Gay-rights advocates. Good-government folks. They’re all going to find themselves increasingly uncomfortable over claims that the likely Democratic nominee, in the film’s words, takes cash from the “darkest, worst corners of the world.”

The 60-minute indictment of the Clintons will soon find its way to an awful lot of televisions ahead of November’s elections. Based on a heavily researched book by the same name, Clinton Cash is careful in laying out a series of facts that are mostly true, though both the book and the movie sometimes draws connections and conclusions that aren’t as solid as their evidence.

“When it comes to the Clintons, you have to follow the money,” Schweizer says in a rough-cut previewed for TIME.

No doubt, there are many places where dotted lines are smudged into solid ones, and some assumptions are made where concrete evidence of quid pro quo is impossible to prove. But as a work of persuasion, the movie is likely to leave on-the-fence Clinton supporters who see it feeling more unsure about casting a vote for her. Made by the conservative Breitbart News’ executive chairman, Stephen K. Bannon, and director M.A. Taylor, this film rises above the traditional campaign hit job.

[…]

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There are a lot of leaps of logic in the film, but the insinuations, told through a pattern of favorable results following cash to Clintons, make for a disheartening watch. For instance, Clinton pal Joe Wilson, a former U.S. Ambassador at the center of the Bush-era controversy over weapons of mass destruction, allegedly got a leg up for his investment firm with help from the Clintons in South Sudan. Then there is a $100 million pledge to the Clintons that coincided with favorable contracts in Nigeria and a $1.4 million speaking fee for Bill Clinton personally. Investor Marc Rich, who received a controversial last-minute pardon in 2001, even makes an appearance.

This is not a movie that is going to dissuade the #imwithher crowd from supporting Clinton. But it is a movie that might keep disaffected liberals at home, energize the Sanders supporters to keep up the fight even after their preferred candidate bows to reality and serve up new fodder for conservative talking heads on cable news. This isn’t a game-changing movie, but one that could keep some less enthusiastic voters on the sidelines.

Read the rest here.

Watch the film’s trailer below:

 

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Session: Election '16 between Nationalism and Globalism

Sen. Sessions: Election offers a simple choice

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www.usatoday.com

Sen. Jeff Sessions and Donald Trump in Madison, Ala., on Feb. 28, 2016.(Photo: John Bazemore, AP)

For the first time in a long time, this November will give Americans a clear choice on perhaps the most important issue facing our country and our civilization: whether we remain a nation-state that serves its own people, or whether we slide irrevocably toward a soulless globalism that treats humans as interchangeable widgets in the world market.

In Donald Trump, we have a forceful advocate for America. Trump has said that our trade, immigration and foreign policies must be changed to protect the interest of American workers and our nation.

In Hillary Clinton, we have a committed globalist. Clinton was an ardent supporter of the Trans-Pacific Partnership — which surrenders American sovereignty to an international union of 12 countries — and has clearly left the door wide open to enacting the pact if elected.

There is only one sure way to defeat the TPP, and that is to defeat Hillary Clinton.

Meanwhile, Clinton’s immigration platform is the most radical in our history. Freezing deportations. Ending detentions. Halting enforcement. She’d expand President Obama’s illegal amnesty decree, effectively creating open borders.

USA TODAY

The Trump train: Our view

Clinton’s extremist proposal economically targets our poor African-American and Hispanic communities whose wages and job prospects are being steadily eroded by the huge influx of new foreign workers.

Yet some Republicans persist in saying that they don’t know whether Mr. Trump is a “real conservative.” This charge misleads in two ways. First: Mr. Trump’s cautious approach to mass migration, transnational trade commissions and nation-building are, by definition, conservative.

Second, the divide between Trump and Clinton on the role of government could not be more stark. Consider just a few of the things President Trump would do after taking the oath: repeal Obamacare; nominate constitutionalist justices; replace Obama’s radical Cabinet appointments; reduce taxes and regulations; produce more American energy; rein in the out-of-control EPA; and cancel Obama’s illegal amnesties.

The choice is a simple one: Do we want a country that serves our people, or not?

Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., was the first senator to endorse Donald Trump.

COMMENTS

'Screw the next generation': Anonymous congressman writes tell-all

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'My main job is to keep my job, to get reelected. It takes precedence over everything,' an anonymous member of Congress writes in a new book'Voters are incredibly ignorant and know little about our form of government and how it works,' he writes'It's far easier than you think to manipulate a nation of naive, self-absorbed sheep who crave instant gratification'One liberal news blogger claims the author is a Democrat'The Confessions of Congressman X' will be released May 24 by a small Minnesota-based 'vanity press' publisher 

GUESSING GAME: 'The Confessions of Congressman X' is due on bookshelves May 24 and Washington is abuzz with speculation about who wrote it

A new book threatens to blow the lid off of Congress as a legislator has penned a tell-all about the worst parts of serving in the House of Representatives – saying that his main job is to raise money for re-election and that leaves little time for reading the bills he votes on.

Mill City Press, a small Minnesota-based 'vanity press' publisher describes 'The Confessions of Congressman X' as  'a devastating inside look at the dark side of Congress as revealed by one of its own.'

'No wonder Congressman X wants to remain anonymous for fear of retribution. His admissions are deeply disturbing.' 

The 84-page exposé is due in bookstores in two weeks, and Washington is abuzz with speculation about who may have written it.

Political Wire, a liberal news blog, disclosed on Thursday that the author is a 'Democratic congressman.'

Most of the excerpts that appear on the book jacket will come as little surprise to Americans who are cynical about the political process.

'Most of my colleagues are dishonest career politicians who revel in the power and special-interest money that's lavished upon them,' the author writes.

'My main job is to keep my job, to get reelected. It takes precedence over everything.'

'Fundraising is so time consuming I seldom read any bills I vote on. Like many of my colleagues, I don't know how the legislation will be implemented, or what it'll cost.'

The book also takes shots at voters as disconnected idiots who let Congress abuse its power through sheer incompetence.

CALM BEFORE THE STORM: The new congressional tell-all is likely to cause controversy on Capitol Hill

'Voters are incredibly ignorant and know little about our form of government and how it works,' the anonymous writer claims.

'It's far easier than you think to manipulate a nation of naive, self-absorbed sheep who crave instant gratification.'

And the take-away message is one of resigned depression about how Congress sacrifices America's future on the altar of its collective ego.

'We spend money we don't have and blithely mortgage the future with a wink and a nod. Screw the next generation,' the author writes. 

'It's about getting credit now, lookin' good for the upcoming election.'

COMMENTS

Federal judge rules Obamacare is being funded unconstitutionally

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www.latimes.com

A federal judge ruled for House Republicans on Thursday in their suit against President Obama and declared his administration is unconstitutionally spending money to reimburse health insurers without obtaining an appropriation fromCongress.

The judge's ruling, though a setback for the administration, was put on hold immediately and stands a good chance of being overturned on appeal.

But the 38-page opinion highlights the repeated complaint from Republicans that Obama and his administration have ignored constitutional limits on their authority.

The Constitution says "No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law," said Judge Rosemary Collyer, yet the administration has continued to pay billions to insurers for their extra cost of providing coverage for low-income Americans.

"Paying out Sec. 1402 reimbursements without an appropriation thus violates the Constitution," she wrote. "Congress is the only source for such an appropriation, and no public money can be spent without one."

House Republicans sued Obama under then-Speaker John Boehner and claimed the president had violated the law by delaying the enforcement of several provisions of the Affordable Care Act. But lawyers later focused on the reimbursements for health insurers that received little attention before. They said these payment would come to $175 billion over a decade.

In their defense, administration lawyers said the suit should be dismissed because the House had no legal standing to sue. And they argued the reimbursements were authorized by law.

The House argues that Congress never specifically appropriated that money and has denied an administration request for it, but that the administration is spending the money anyway.

Collyer issued an order stopping further reimbursements, but delayed its implementation while the case is appealed.

Collyer is a George W. Bush appointee nominated in 2002.

This post was updated with a staff-written account replacing wire service reporting.

This was first posted at 10:20 a.m. 

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