Gary Welsh Last Ominous Post R.I.P.

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Friday, April 29, 2016

New Poll Shows Trump Up In Indiana By Nine Points

Every poll taken in Indiana shows Donald Trumpleading his Republican primary opponents in next week's primary election. The latest poll released by ARG gives Trump a 9-point advantage over his nearest competitor, Ted Cruz. Trump leads Cruz by a 41-32% margin. Kasich is far behind with just 21% of the vote. Trump is leading in almost every category, including likely Republican voters, young and older voters, male and even female voters. 

A second poll released by a Republican pollster, Clout Research, shows the race much closer. Trump is ahead by only two percentage points in that poll over Cruz, 37-35%. Kasich trails with only 16% of the vote.

If I'm not around to see the vote results, my prediction is that Trump wins Indiana with just shy of 50% of the vote, but he will carry every single congressional district and sweep the delegate race--assuming the party-chosen delegates honor their rules-bound commitment to support the winner on the first ballot. Most of those delegates favored John Kasich at the time they were chosen. Only two of the delegates named by state party officials publicly declared their support for Trump, although some have indicated they would feel obligated to support the voters' wishes.

Cruz has made Indiana his last stand. He threw a hail mary pass earlier in the week by naming Carly Fiorina as his running mate in hopes of attracting female voters in next week's primary election. He snagged Gov. Pence's endorsement today, although his favorability numbers aren't so hot right now and that endorsement is likely to further infuriate already alienated Republican and independent voters. Cruz has also taken up residence in the state this past week, criss-crossing the state with multiple appearances. His crowds have been small compared to Trump's rallies.

Trump has had fewer appearances in Indiana, but his rallies have drawn far larger and more enthusiastic crowds. He returns this weekend for rallies in Fort Wayne on Sunday at Memorial Coliseum, and he will close out his campaigning in Indiana at the Century Center in South Bend Monday evening. Click here for information on those events.

Early voting, which started off very slow, has surged and appears to be well above average for presidential primary elections in Indiana in many counties now. Those new voters will favor Trump, not Cruz. The Democratic primary will draw far fewer voters. Clinton should handily defeat Bernie Sanders by a 58-42% margin, helped by those who might have otherwise voted in the Democratic primary choosing to take a Republican ballot instead.

UPDATE: There's a real outlier poll added to the mix late today. IPFW/Downs Center in Fort Wayne released a poll showing Cruz with a double-digit lead of 45 to 29% over Trump. Adding that lopsided poll into the mix makes the RealClearPolitics average show a very tight race, with Trump up about 2%, 37.5-35.2%. 

Gary R. Welsh at 12:21 PM

BREAKING: Blogger Who Tried To Connect CRUZ’S DAD With Lee Harvey Oswald Found DEAD

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The blogger who claimed that Ted Cruz’s dad was in connection with John F. Kennedy’s murder has been found dead in his home. Do you think that this has anything to do with his blog post about Cruz? Or was he simply depressed?

    A prolific Indiana political blogger wrote an ominous post last week predicting a Donald Trump victory in his state — and soon afterward committed suicide, police said.

    Gary Welsh, a lawyer who managed his Advance Indiana blog since 2005, was found in his Indianapolis apartment around 8 a.m. Sunday with a gunshot wound, according to the Indianapolis Star. Officers found him in a stairwell, dead at the scene, according to a police report
Police ruled Welsh’s death a suicide, but have not released any details about what may have motivated it.

…

Just days before he was found dead, Welsh, 53, filed a final post for his blog, predicting Trump will win the Hoosier State’s GOP presidential primary Tuesday
But his post took dark turn, even for a piece discussing a Donald Trump victory.

“If I’m not around to see the vote results, my prediction is that Trump wins Indiana with just shy of 50% of the vote,” Welsh wrote.

Two readers seemed confused or concerned about his cryptic comment Welsh, 53, wrote the widely followed conservative blog Advance Indiana, which he launched more than a decade ago. He also was a practicing attorney.

The Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department’s incident report says officers were dispatched to the Lockerbie Glove Factory Lofts, 430 N. Park Ave., before 8 a.m. Sunday after receiving a report of a person found shot in the stairwell of the building. The witnesses who called 911 reported that a gun was next to the body

IMPD Capt. Richard Riddle said he expects an autopsy will be conducted Monday. He said the Marion County Coroner’s Office will determine the official cause of death.

Welsh was known for hard-hitting blog posts that took swipes at both Democrats and Republicans.

    His final post, published Friday, summarized the latest poll results in the GOP presidential primary battle between Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

    Read more: IBJ

Here is a portion about the blog post from Welsh about Ted Cruz’s father and his alleged connection to Lee Harvey Oswald:

    Anyone who has studied the assassination of President John F. Kennedy has understood the key role Cuban-Americans working for the CIA played in the intelligence community plot to kill Kennedy in Dallas, Texas in 1963. Government disinformation agents immediately played up Lee Harvey Oswald’s supposed ties to the Fair Play for Cuba Committee in New Orleans prior to Kennedy’s assassination, which was supposedly a pro-Castro organization created by the Soviet Union. More realistically, it was a CIA front group since most of the people associated with the organization in New Orleans, including Oswald, had all worked for the CIA in some capacity. Warren Commission records proving Oswald’s ties to the CIA and FBI have remained sealed since the release of the Commission’s widely-discredited report in 1964 claiming the assassination was the lone work of Oswald.

    Reporters looking into the murky background of the Cuban-immigrant father of Sen. Ted Cruz have uncovered a number of inconsistencies in biographical claims in Sen. Cruz’s book that his father had fled to the U.S. in 1957 as an insurgent fighting the Batista regime with only a $100 sewn into his underwear. Newly-reported information by independent investigator Wayne Madsen ties Rafael Bienvenido Cruz to Oswald’s work for the supposedly pro-Castro group in New Orleans during the summer of 1963.

    Madsen claims that one of the Cubans pictured with Oswald handing out pamphlets for Fair Play outside the International Trade Mart in August, 1963 is Rafael Cruz. The ITM’s founder, Clay Shaw, worked for the CIA and was the only other man in the U.S. to face criminal charges in connection with the Kennedy assassination, when NOLA district attorney James Garrison brought charges in what he contended was a wide government conspiracy to assassinate Kennedy. Shaw was acquitted of the charges and Garrison humiliated after federal agencies worked hand-in-hand with mainstream media to discredit his case.

    Cruz’s Cuban father, also named Rafael Cruz, operated an electronic business in Matanzas, Cuba tied to the American company, RCA. While reporters have been able to confirm an instance where the elder Cruz was arrested by Cuban police and brutally beaten, reporters have found no confirmation the arrest had anything to do with work for forces supporting Castro’s efforts to overthrow the pro-American Batista regime. After arriving by a ferry boat from Cuba in Key West, Florida in 1957, Cruz’ father made his way to Austin, Texas where he managed to enroll at the University of Texas and earn a degree in mathematics in 1961.

    Read more: Advance Indiana

ABC News Bumps Donald Trump Delegate Count to 996

NYT ALSO CONFIRMS THE DELEGATE COUNT

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by EZRA DULIS28 Apr 20162,100

ABC News has updated its estimate of the current delegate totals in the Republican presidential primary, putting Donald Trump closer to the nomination than first thought after Tuesday night’s sweep of five states.

Reporter Ryan Struyk said on Twitter that the new numbers came from calls placed to every unbound delegate to gauge their support for Trump plus rivals 

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)

97%

 and John Kasich.

This leaves only 241 more delegates from Trump to win in the primary’s remaining contests: Indiana (where 57 are up for grabs), Nebraska (36), West Virginia (34), Oregon (28), Washington (44), California (172), Montana (27), New Jersey (51), New Mexico (24), and South Dakota (29). Figures from Tuesday night — counting only the delegates automatically pledged thanks to Mr. Trump’s election victories — put him around 288 delegates away from 1,237.

While Struyk has not yet posted an article on this development, the ABC News election coverage home page already shows the updated figures.

Earlier Thursday afternoon, Nate Cohn at the New York Times posted analysis with asimilar conclusion — that Trump has a path to the nomination even if he loses the Indiana primary.

The main reason is Mr. Trump’s success on Tuesday among Pennsylvania’s 54 unpledged delegates. Even though none of them are officially bound to a candidate, 31 of the 54 spots went to delegates preferred by Mr. Trump. And before the election, others had said they would vote for the winner of their district (Mr. Trump won all of the state’s districts). My colleague Jeremy W. Peters reported that Mr. Trump “appeared to have won about 40 of Pennsylvania’s 54 unbound delegates.”

…

If he has indeed moved many of those delegates off the sideline and into his territory, it obviates the necessity for him to win Indiana, which is worth 57 delegates (30 delegates to the statewide winner and three delegates to the winner of each of nine congressional districts). He would still need a comfortable victory in California — enough to win about 130 of the state’s 172 delegates in the event of a loss in Indiana. He could bring that figure as low as 115 with good outcomes in West Virginia, Oregon, Washington and New Mexico, or with a few additional districts in Indiana.

Trump declared himself the “presumptive nominee” on Tuesday night but is still campaigning hard for Indiana’s voters. On Wednesday, former Indiana Hoosiers coach Bob Knight endorsed Trump at an Evansville rally.

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Big Government, 2016 Presidential Race,Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, John Kasich,Indiana Primary, Delegate count