Sometimes, Iowa Democrats award caucus delegates with a coin flip

www.desmoinesregister.com

The caucus mathematics worksheet from the Ames 2-4 precinct in Story County came down to a coin toss. Hillary Clinton was awarded a contested delegate after a coin toss.(Photo: Special to the Regsiter)

In a handful of Democratic caucus precincts Monday, a delegate was awarded with a coin toss.

It happened in precinct 2-4 in Ames, where supporters of candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton disputed the results after 60 caucus participants apparently disappeared from the proceedings.

As a result of the coin toss, Clinton was awarded an additional delegate, meaning she took five of the precinct’s eight, while Sanders received three.

Here’s what happened, according to David Schweingruber, an associate professor of sociology at Iowa State University (and Sanders supporter) who participated in the caucus:

A total of 484 eligible caucus attendees were initially recorded at the site. But when each candidate’s preference group was counted, Clinton had 240 supporters, Sanders had 179 and Martin O’Malley had five (causing him to be declared non-viable).

Those figures add up to just 424 participants, leaving 60 apparently missing. When those numbers were plugged into the formula that determines delegate allocations, Clinton received four delegates and Sanders received three — leaving one delegate unassigned.

Unable to account for that numerical discrepancy and the orphan delegate it produced, the Sanders campaign challenged the results and precinct leaders called a Democratic Party hot line set up to advise on such situations.

Party officials recommended they settle the dispute with a coin toss.

A Clinton supporter correctly called “heads” on a quarter flipped in the air, and Clinton received a fifth delegate.

Similar situations were reported elsewhere, including at a precinct in Des Moines, at another precinct in Des Moines, in Newton, in West Branch  and in Davenport. In all five situations, Clinton won the toss.

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Ben Carson Accuses Ted Cruz of Dirty Tricks at Iowa Caucuses

LEADERSHIP BEN CARSON

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Tessa BerensonFEBRUARY 1, 2016, 11:54 PM EST

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Republican presidential candidate Ben CarsonBrendan Hoffman—Getty Images

The Carson camp claimed Cruz’s team spread false rumors at caucus sites that Carson had dropped out.

Ben Carson was incensed as the results of Monday night’s Iowa caucuses rolled in, accusing the winner of spreading falsehoods about him at caucus sites.

Carson’s team claimed that Cruz’s campaign deliberately sent emails to supporters to spread false rumors at caucus sites that Carson had dropped out, so his supporters would caucus for other candidates.

“That is really quite a dirty trick,” Carson said speaking to reporters at the end of the evening. “That’s the very kind of thing that irritated me enough to get into this quagmire.”

“To have campaigns come out and send emails to their caucus speakers suggesting that Dr. Carson was doing anything but moving forward after tonight is the lowest of low in American politics,” said Carson campaign manager Ed Brookover.

“This is horseshit,” Rob Taylor, Iowa state representative and Carson’s Iowa co-chair, said simply.

Members of Carson’s team furnished evidence of various precinct captains alleging misconduct by the Cruz campaign.

Ryan Rhodes, Carson’s Iowa state director, showed reporters a text on his phone from Barbara Heki, a Mike Huckabee supporter. “The Cruz speakers at our caucus announced Carson was suspending his campaign for a while after caucus. They did this before the vote. Same thing happened at another caucus. Sounds like slimy Cruzing to me,” the text read.

Jason Osborne, Carson’s deputy senior strategist, read aloud another missive, this one an email from their precinct chair in Muscatine: “The guy speaking for Ted Cruz right before the vote, he was supposed to be done, he announced that there was a story on CNN that Ben Carson was taking a break after Iowa, and then stated, ‘So you might want to rethink wasting your vote on him.’”

Cruz’s team flatly denies the allegations. “That’s absurd,” spokesperson Catherine Frazier said simply.

With additional reporting by Alex Altman

This article was originally published on Time.com.

Cruz Draws First Blood

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by BEN SHAPIRO1 Feb 20163,555

On Monday, Senator Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) performed the singular feat of simultaneously proving that a Republican can win Iowa without backing the ethanol boondoggle, and toppled The God Who Does Not Bleed, Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Senator Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) finished stronger than expected, beating poll estimates by six percentage points; Trump finished more than four percent below expectations, while Cruz finished nearly four percent above expectations.

Naturally, the media rushed to declare Rubio tonight’s big winner.

That’s nonsense. Cruz, the most consistent conservative in the race, was the big winner. Bronze isn’t gold. And as Trump has tweeted:

“No one remembers who came in second.” – Walter Hagen

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 30, 2013

Cruz had to win Iowa in order to remain competitive in future states. He dealt Trump a blow that will test Trump’s mettle, and withstood The Donald’s biggest campaign haymakers in order to do it. He beat back a media assault on him that ranged from his birthplace to his Goldman Sachs connections. “Iowa has sent notice that the Republican nominee…will not be chosen by the media, by the establishment, or by the lobbyists,” Cruz said.

We can only hope that’s true going forward.

What’s more, Cruz utilized a serious ground game and data plan to pound out a victory over a candidate with significantly more media exposure. Some may say that makes Trump look strong – he didn’t utilize the same resources. But that actually just demonstrates that boots on the ground always defeat an air-only campaign. As Cruz put it in his victory speech, “Tonight is a victory for the grassroots.” And Cruz worked those grassroots.

Cruz isn’t done yet, either. Unlike Mike Huckabee in 2008 or Rick Santorum in 2012, he has the resources to run a long, grueling campaign before he even begins. His campaign has $19 million on hand, more than any other candidate. He’s running second in South Carolina already to Trump, who will take a polling hit there. He’s currently tied for second in New Hampshire, and unhampered by the four-way crab pot that is the establishment lane. Should Trump hit the skids, Cruz will be right there to pick up the pieces – as he should be, given that he’s the man who put Trump on the mat.

Rubio, meanwhile, withstood approximately $20 million in Jeb! ad spends in Iowa designed to push down his polling numbers. That demonstrates that his candidacy is not merely viable, but durable – he can take a punch. Tonight was a solid night for Rubio. But he won’t really be tested until New Hampshire, where there are other major establishment candidates expending plenty of resources. Right now, he’s running even with Cruz, Ohio Governor John Kasich, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. He’ll have to emerge from that scrum in a major way – and he’ll have to hope that Trump plummets in the meanwhile. The early primaries don’t favor Rubio. He’s biding his time, hoping to last until Florida and Super Tuesday; it could certainly happen. But his path is rougher than many members of the media assume.

As for Trump, he’s not finished yet. How could he be? He entered the caucuses today with a 4.7 percent lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average – but in New Hampshire, he’d have to drop more than 20 percentage points to even meet the rest of the field. Even Vermont Governor Howard Dean didn’t drop that much in New Hampshire after the infamous Dean Scream of 2004. Trump is still the frontrunner in New Hampshire – so the question becomes whether either Rubio or Cruz can build on their momentum from tonight.

The fight didn’t end tonight. It began. There are three viable candidates for the Republican nomination. But the frontrunner, at least for now, is no longer Donald Trump. It’s the best-organized, best-funded, most conservative member of the field: Cruz.

Ben Shapiro is Senior Editor-At-Large of Breitbart News, Editor-in-Chief of DailyWire.com, and The New York Times bestselling author, most recently, of the book,The People vs. Barack Obama: The Criminal Case Against The Obama Administration (Threshold Editions, June 10, 2014). Follow Ben Shapiro on Twitter @benshapiro.

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www.bloomberg.com

Donald Trump has overtaken Ted Cruz in the final days before Iowa's caucuses, with the fate of the race closely tied to the size of Monday evening's turnout, especially among evangelical voters and those attending for the first time, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows.

The findings before the first ballots are cast in the 2016 presidential nomination race shows Trump with the support of 28 percent of likely caucus-goers, followed by 23 percent for the Texas senator and 15 percent for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.

The billionaire real estate mogul leads Cruz among those who say they definitely plan to attend, 30 percent to 26 percent. With the less committed—those who say they'll probably attend—Trump also beats Cruz, 27 percent to 21 percent.

“Trump is leading with both the inner core of the caucus universe and the fringe—that’s what any candidate would want," said longtime Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey for the news organizations. 

Read the poll questions and methodology here.

The poll's findings are based on 47 percent of those likely to attend considering themselves evangelical or born again Christians. When re-weighted as a scenario test for the higher evangelical turnout seen in 2012 entrance polls, the race is closer, with 26 percent for Trump and 25 percent for Cruz.

A Trump victory could significantly boost his chances of winning his party's nomination, while a second-place finish for Cruz would be a major setback for a candidate who has invested heavily in Iowa and enjoyed strong support from evangelical Christians who form a large part of the state’s electorate. Trump is dominating in polling in New Hampshire and South Carolina, the two states that follow Iowa in the nomination calendar.

Just two days before the first-in-the-nation caucuses, the race remains fluid, even after hundreds of campaign stops in Iowa, tens of millions of dollars of advertising and seven nationally televised debates.

More than half—55 percent—say their mind is made up, while 45 percent say they either don't have a first-choice candidate or could still be persuaded to pick someone else. In the final Iowa Poll before the 2012 Republican caucuses, 51 percent say they had their minds made up.

Trump's advantage over Cruz is a reversal of the race in the previous Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in early January, when he trailed 25 percent to 22 percent.

Under near constant attack from Trump since December, Cruz’s favorability rating has also dropped—by 11 points to 65 percent. Trump is viewed favorably by 50 percent, a four-point drop since the prior poll and the lowest of the top four candidates. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Rubio are in the low 70s.

The crowded Republican field appears to be working against Cruz. If the race for the nomination eventually became a two-person race between Trump and Cruz, 53 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers would pick Cruz, while 35 percent would go with Trump.

"There's an appreciation for Cruz even among people who are voting in a different way," said Selzer, who is widely considered the state's top pollster. "For Trump, he might be able to win, in part because the field is as big as it is."

In fourth place is Carson, who is backed by 10 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers, followed by U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky at 5 percent. No other candidate recorded above 3 percent.

At the time of his departure from the race in September, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker called on other candidates to also drop out, so that an establishment candidate could emerge with enough support to challenge Trump. Yet the combined support of candidates in that lane—Rubio, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Ohio Governor John Kasich and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie—is still less than Trump or Cruz. 

Support for Rubio, who has emerged as the leading establishment candidate, remained flat as the caucuses near. In fact, over the four days of the survey, his support dropped the last two days.

Supporters of Trump are the most decided among the top three candidates, with 71 percent saying their mind is made up, compared to 61 percent for Cruz and 47 percent for Rubio. Trump also leads with most demographic groups measured by the poll, including those without college degrees, moderates and Catholics.

The poll's findings suggest Trump is inspiring new interest in the Republican caucuses: 40 percent of those in the survey say they'll be attending for the first time, the highest number recorded by the survey this election cycle. The last Iowa Poll before the 2012 caucuses showed 27 percent first-time caucus-goers.

Nearly one-third of Cruz’s supporters say they’d be attending for the first time, compared to half of Trump's supporters who say they'll be going for the first time, suggesting he has a greater challenge in turning out his supporters because veteran caucus-goers tend to be more reliable.

Cruz's drop from an Iowa Poll in early December—when he led the field at 31 percent—reflects a falloff in support across multiple demographic groups, including people who define themselves primarily as evangelical conservatives, where his backing dropped 12 percentage points. His support among the youngest and oldest also dropped and he lost 14 points in the Third Congressional District that includes parts of central and southwest Iowa, including the state capitol of Des Moines.

The poll suggests there could be growing Trump fatigue as well in a state he's visited often in recent months. Almost half of those likely to attend the Republican caucuses say they've become less comfortable with the idea of him winning the nomination, while 49 percent say that of his prospects of representing the U.S. to the rest of the world and 45 percent on his possibility of winning the presidency.

Likely caucus-goers are becoming more comfortable, meanwhile, with the prospects of Cruz doing those things, with roughly half saying they've moved that direction.

On candidate traits tested, Trump won on almost every question. He beats Cruz on being most feared by U.S. enemies (50 percent to 21 percent), potential to bring about needed change (37 percent to 21 percent), being a strong leader (32 percent to 23 percent), prospects for winning a general election (35 percent to 24 percent) and keeping "your family safest" (28 percent to 24 percent).

Cruz beats Trump on having the "greatest depth of knowledge and experience" (26 percent to 17 percent), as well as being respected by leaders of friendly countries (20 percent to 16 percent).

Two dramatic moves in the final weeks of the Iowa race appeared to make little difference. A plurality—46 percent—say they didn't care that Trump skipped the debate in Des Moines this week, while Iowa Governor Terry Branstad’s plea to defeat Cruz failed to sway 77 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers.

In a test of some other lines of attack that have been used against Cruz and Trump, the poll found varying strength.

Three-quarters of likely Republican caucus-goers say they're not bothered by the fact that Cruz had dual citizenship with Canada until recently, while almost two-thirds don't care that Cruz's personality is off-putting to some, including Senate colleagues from both parties.

A slim majority of 54 percent say they're bothered that Cruz failed to fully disclose up to $1 million in loans from Wall Street banks during his 2012 Senate run. Less than half—43 percent—were bothered by Cruz's position on the Renewable Fuel Standard.

Trump’s support for the use of eminent domain to take, in exchange for compensation, private property for public or private projects, was a concern for 60 percent of those polled. Nearly as many—56 percent—are bothered that in the past he supported abortion rights and said he wouldn't ban late-term abortions.

More than six in 10 aren't bothered by questions about Trump’s familiarity with the Bible, while almost two-thirds aren't bothered that some of his business have filed for bankruptcy.

With former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg considering an independent presidential bid, the poll tested his favorability ratings among likely Republican and Democratic caucus-goers.

The findings highlight some of the hurdles facing Bloomberg should he decide to enter the race. The former mayor isn't well known in the state among the most motivated voters in both parties, with 41 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers and 57 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers not knowing him well enough to share an opinion.

For those who do have an opinion, 50 percent of Republican caucus-goers have an unfavorable view, versus just 9 percent who hold a favorable opinion. Among those likely to attend the Democratic caucuses, that split was 26 percent unfavorable to 17 percent favorable.

Bloomberg was a three-term mayor of New York, twice as a Republican and finally as an independent, and is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, parent of Bloomberg News.

The survey, conducted Jan. 26-29 by Selzer & Co. of West Des Moines, Iowa, included 602 likely Republican caucus participants and 602 likely Democratic caucus participants. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

COMMENTS

America 2016: We’re mad as hell and not going to take it anymore

www.mcclatchydc.com

Craig Ziemke has voted for Democrats all his life, including twice for President Barack Obama. Not this year.

“The whole country is going to hell,” the 66-year-old retired factory worker said, standing against the bleachers at a high school gymnasium while waiting for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump to arrive. Ziemke’s fury is deep: Roads and bridges in the U.S. are falling apart, jobs are scarce and the U.S. border is wide open, he says.

“We’re letting all these people into the country. No one even knows who the hell they are,” he said. “We don’t need any more Arabs. The United States, anymore, is just a dumping ground for everyone.”

Ziemke plans to caucus for a Republican on Monday – and likely for Trump, “the only one with brains,” he said.

If Obama’s 2008 campaign in Iowa and beyond defined the election as one of “hope and change,” this year may well be described as the politics of rage.

In interviews with dozens of voters in both parties, the driving motivation across the state is anger and uprising. They’re fed up with lawmakers in Washington, who seem to work two or three days a week and get little done aside from raising money to stay in office. They’re mad about stagnant wages, companies sending jobs overseas and terrorists sneaking in across the border.

The rage is driving the campaigns of the “outsiders.” For Republicans, that’s the bombastic Trump and his chief rival, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, with verbal assaults against his own Republican colleagues.

EDITORS: BEGIN OPTIONAL TRIM

Trump rallies can be boisterous affairs, with the audience turning on hecklers as Trump urges security to “get ’em the hell out of here.” News cameras captured several white men in November apparently kicking and punching a Black Lives Matter protester at a Trump event. In Vermont in January, he called on his security guards to “confiscate” a protester’s coat. “You know it’s about 10 degrees below zero outside,” he said from the stage. “You can keep his coat. Tell him we’ll send it to him in a couple of weeks.”

EDITORS: END OPTIONAL TRIM

On the Democratic side, the discontent fuels the insurgent campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont who vows a political revolution to fix what he says is a system skewed to favor the rich.

“I plead guilty. I am angry,” Sanders recently told an audience in Maquoketa, Iowa, pushing back against former President Bill Clinton’s critique that voters need “not anger, but answers.”

I plead guilty. I am angry. Bernie Sanders

Sanders continued: “I am angry and millions of Americans are angry. We are angry that our people are working longer hours for lower wages. We are angry that our criminal justice system is broken. And we’re angry that we have a corrupt campaign-finance system that allows billionaires to buy elections.”

The appeal resonates with voters furious over the role of money in politics: “I can’t even stand it, when I hear how much money they’re all willing to spend to run for office, but not provide day care for children,” said Monica McCarthy, waiting in a crowded union hall in Des Moines to hear Sanders speak. “It’s all rich guys who want to take over this country giving to other rich guys to help the rich.”

(Get the political buzz of the day, every day, from McClatchy)

The irate, discontent electorate is apparent in polls: More than 6 in 10 people think that either all or most Americans are angry with Washington, according to a recent Monmouth University survey.

EDITORS: BEGIN OPTIONAL TRIM

Republicans are more likely than independents or Democrats to think that the majority of their fellow citizens are teed off at their government.

And it’s not just aimed at Washington.

Yet if Americans agree that their elected officials make them furious, they’re divided on the cure: Fifty percent say elected officials who are not willing to compromise are the cause of the problem, while 40 percent say elected officials who don’t stand up for their principles are to blame.

“We have reached the point where many feel that the opposite side of the political aisle poses an existential threat to the country itself,” said Patrick Murray, director of the polling institute in West Long Branch, N.J. “It is not clear how Washington can be fixed when Republicans and Democrats don’t even agree on what the problem is.”

EDITORS: END OPTIONAL TRIM

This deep anger is fed by power lurching back and forth between Republicans and Democrats over the past decade, raising hopes among Americans who favor one side, then dashing them when little changes thanks to mounting dysfunction in Washington, said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York.

“It’s just been too many times, and they just feel nothing has worked,” Miringoff said.

That anger has prompted a look outside of politics; way outside. Previously, he said, governors were considered “outsider” candidates for the presidential nomination. Now outsiders have scarcely any political experience.

“Our politics have changed,” Miringoff said, adding “there’s a growing mistrust of institutions,” including government, the health care system, and the media and pollsters.

EDITORS: BEGIN OPTIONAL TRIM

An NBC News/Wall Street Journalpoll last November found deep frustration, with nearly 7 in 10 Americans agreeing they were angry that the political system “seems to only be working for the insiders with money and power, like those on Wall Street or in Washington.”

EDITORS: END OPTIONAL TRIM

The fury has establishment Republicans worried: South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley warned fellow Republicans against following “the siren call of the angriest voices” when she delivered the party’s response to Obama’s State of the Union address earlier this month.

She didn’t name Trump. But he happily brushed off the rebuke at a Republican debate days later, saying he was “very angry because our country is being run horribly” and would “gladly accept the mantle of anger.”

EDITORS: BEGIN OPTIONAL TRIM

Tim Leake, 18, who works at his family’s car lot in Marshalltown, will caucus for the first time and is casting his vote for Trump.

“I’m fed up,” Leake said, sporting a “Hillary for Prison 2016” button on his jacket as he waited in the cold to hear Trump speak. “I’m fed up with all the bull crap and all the lying. They’re spending us into debt and not doing anything they promised they would do.”

I’m fed up with all the bull crap and all the lying. Tim Leake, 18, an Iowa voter

EDITORS: END OPTIONAL TRIM

Cruz also seeks to channel the anger, as he did at a rally in West Des Moines this week when he complained that Republican majorities “haven’t delivered for conservatives” and Americans “feel a profound sense of betrayal.”

Adam Bauer, who brought his wife and their four young children along, is one of those Americans.

“I know I’m frustrated. I’ve heard Trump supporters are crazy mad,” Bauer said. “We’re frustrated where our current president has taken us and with the Republican leadership.” 　

COMMENTS

VIDEO: Bill Clinton’s voice frail, hand quivers during attacks on Sanders

Packed room of almost 350 people

www.theamericanmirror.com

Perhaps Americans should be more worried about the seemingly frail and sickly Bill and Hillary Clinton, and less so about their 74-year-old rival Bernie Sanders.

During an appearance in Fairfield, Iowa Friday, KTVO reports Clinton was “much more direct today in attacking his wife’s chief opponent in the race, Bernie Sanders,” than at a Thursday rally.

“Who will do the most to make you a part of the future that the president painted in the State of the Union,” Clinton said, his voice quivering. “How are we going to do it and who’s the best change maker to do it?

“It’s not close. Hillary is the best change maker to do it,” Clinton said, his hand shaking as he pointed at the audience.

The once nubile Clinton is showing his age. It’s not 1992 anymore.

KTVO reports 350 people turned out to see the former president, but notes “many” of them were Sanders supporters who turned out to see the former president.

The news station also tweeted out this photo, again claiming 350 in attendance.

350 in attendance for Bill Clinton in Fairfield.pic.twitter.com/fzpdTPT0we

— Matt Thielke

(@MattThielkeKTVO)January 29, 2016

(Does that look like 350 people to you?)

The Clinton campaign has been plagued by low turnout at events, certainly an indication of enthusiasm — or lack thereof.

The Globe Gazette reported there were so many people at Bernie Sander’s rally in Mason City Wednesday night, some had to stand outside in the freezing cold and watch through the windows.

Sam Frizell of Time Magazine appeared on MSNBC Thursday andreported Clinton also appeared in Mason City Wednesday night and couldn’t match Sanders’s crowd.

Clinton had 300 attend while Sanders had 1,100 — nearly four times the former president’s total.

COMMENTS

Donald Trump Campaign Manager: Other Candidates Thinking About Skipping Fox Debate

AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

by CHARLIE SPIERING27 Jan 201621

Speaking on Good Morning America and Morning Joe this morning, Donald Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski hinted that other candidates were thinking of dropping out of the upcoming Fox News debate after Trump decided to bail.

He asserted that anchor Megyn Kelly was “obsessed” with his boss, which was one reason why Trump decided not to participate.

“Megyn Kelly is totally obsessed with Mr. Trump,” Lewandowski said on Good Morning America. “She’s done multiple shows on why he shouldn’t be even involved in the race on television. She’s completely obsessed with him. It’s impossible to have a fair and honest debate.”

Lewandowski argued that Fox News was trying to use the event to promote its own employees, not the issues that mattered to voters.

“What Fox wants to do is they want to have 24 million people tune in to watch Donald Trump so that their anchors can have the story about them,” he said, pointing out that Trump could see it was a “bad deal” to appear at the debate.

Lewandowski previewed a Trump event in Des Moines, saying he would be raising money for wounded veterans, and said in an interview on Morning Joe that other campaigns had phoned them for details of the event.

“I had a number of calls yesterday with some of the other campaigns who said, hey, can we come and join you in raising money for the wounded warriors, for veterans because, you know, if Fox isn’t going to be fair to you, what makes you think they’re going to be fair to us,” he said.

He called Fox executives “very dishonest” for accusing him of threatening Kelly in phone calls, and accused them of favoring other candidates because they had family members working for them.

“It’s a shame, when you have a conversation with some of the Fox executives, you’d hope they’d keep that conversation private,” he said. “Instead you have executives over there who have relatives working for other campaigns. These are the people who are putting debate questions together.”

“Mr. Trump knows when to walk away from a bad deal,” he said on Morning Joe. “It’s Roger Ailes, It’s Fox News, they think they can toy with Mr. Trump, Mr. Trump doesn’t play games, you guys know that … this isn’t about Megyn Kelly at all, this is about giving the American people the opportunity to ask questions, to hear from the candidates directly in a fair manner.”

He compared the upcoming Fox News debate with the widely criticized CNBC debate – accusing Fox executives of trying to make the moderators the story instead of focusing on the issues.

“What we saw, even with the CNBC debate is when the moderators want to be the story and not let the candidate answer or have the opportunity to answer questions that the American people care about, there’s ramifications to that,” Lewandowski said.

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GLENN BECK, You Do Not Understand Sarah Palin

AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

by JOEL B. POLLAK20 Jan 2016557

The conservative commentariat has imploded in dismay at Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump in Iowa on Tuesday.

Fans of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Trump’s main rival in Iowa and beyond, were understandably dismayed.

But the reaction went far beyond that. Some said Palin betrayed her conservative principles by choosing a candidate whose conservatism is shallow at best. And some rehashed the personal attacks that have been a staple of the left.

In fact, Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Trump makes sense, and fits both her politics and her personality.

Yes, she has been the iconic symbol of conservatism and the Tea Party, whereas Trump seemed perfectly happy to go along with Obama and the Clintons until a few years ago.

But just as Palin has never let herself be defined by the Republican Party, she has never felt bound by ideological checklists, either. She is a conservative, but she is anti-establishment first.

Palin became the governor of Alaska in 2005 by running against the establishment of both parties. In 2014, in Wacko Birds: The Fall and Rise of the Tea Party, I noted:

Ironically, though she would soon become a conservative icon, Palin was billed as something of a political centrist. McCain introduced her to the country as “someone who reached across the aisle and asked Republicans, Democrats and independents to serve in government.” She was socially conservative, but had vetoed a bill that would have prevented same-sex partners from enjoying visitation rights in Alaskan hospitals. She was said to share something of McCain’s rebellious streak, and his willingness to confront his own party’s interests as she took on corruption and special interest groups.

In the Obama era, conservatism became the dominant anti-establishment theme of American politics, thanks partly to Palin. However, over time, Palin has found herself increasingly at odds with the conservative establishment itself, parts of which are anti-populist–happy to have her backing, but faintly embarrassed by her and repulsed by her supporters.

(Update: Ted Cruz has made his reputation as an anti-establishment politician, so it would not have been surprising had Palin supported him instead of Trump, simply on ideological grounds. Palin’s reasons for choosing Trump may be more personal than political. But the dismissive reaction of some Cruz supporters to Palin suggests a kind of elitism. Parts of the anti-establishment conservative movement turn out to be their own kind of establishment.)

It is now fashionable, even among some “true conservative” pundits, to bash Palin’s intellect and mock her speech. Trump’s supporters are often treated with the same disdain as Palin’s fans, as if not even their votes are wanted.

Surprisingly, Ross Douthat of the New York Times came closer to understanding the Palin endorsement than many conservatives outside the mainstream media bubble,tweeting: “Seriously, this is who Palin was meant to be. Her neocon + movement phases were opportunism/osmosis. This is closer to where she started.”

That is too harsh: her “opportunism” included resigning from the governorship and turning down several chances to run for office again. And Douthat may be implying, as others have said outright, that what Trump and Palin really have in common is just celebrity.

That would miss the convictions that motivate Palin, and that still attract millions of Americans to her. Regardless, the kernel of truth in Douthat’s tweet is that Palin was, and remains, the leader of a popular resistance to what American politics has become. It is a conservative resistance, but does not always conform to conservative politics.

It is unclear, as of this writing, that Palin’s endorsement will have a significant effect on the Iowa caucuses, where polls had been trending back in Trump’s direction.

What is remarkable is that just days after defending “New York values,” Trump brought Palin–so often the target of New York elites–on board. It confirmed that he intends to build a big coalition–the “big tent” of political lore.

How odd that some conservatives would still prefer to bar the clubhouse door.

 

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Ted Cruz: Establishment Has Abandoned Marco Rubio for Donald Trump

AP

by CHARLIE SPIERING20 Jan 2016680

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has a theory as to why everyone is warming up to Donald Trump: Trump will make deals in Washington D.C. instead of fighting for conservatism.

Speaking to reporters after a campaign rally, Cruz said that the establishment was no longer looking to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) as their champion.

“We’re seeing something remarkable happening in this Republican primary,” Cruz said, according to National Review’s Eliana Johnson. “Right now, the Washington establishment is abandoning Marco Rubio, they’ve made the assessment that Marco can’t win this race, and the Washington establishment is rushing over to support Donald Trump. We’re seeing that happen every day, and Mr. Trump is welcoming that support.”

Last night, Cruz made a similar argument in a recent interview, calling Trump part of the “Washington cartel.”

“The cartel exists to make deals and to pick winners and losers through cronyism and corporate welfare,” Cruz said in an interview with BuzzFeed’s Rosie Gray. “And so it’s no surprise that more and more of the establishment is beginning to support Donald Trump. Because Donald has promised to make deals and to continue the cronyism and corporate welfare of Washington. That’s what the cartel does. They make deals with Democrats.”

Cruz said that Trump was more likely to make deals with Democrats to help get things done.

“Donald Trump said just yesterday that the problem with me is that I wouldn’t go to Washington to make a deal and go along to get along with the Democrats,” Cruz said in the interview. “If you’re looking for someone who’s a dealmaker, who’ll capitulate even more to the Democrats, who’ll give in to Chuck Schumer, Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), then perhaps Donald Trump is your man.”

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Sarah Palin Endorses Donald Trump, Which Could Bolster Him in Iowa

www.nytimes.com

Video The former vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin praised Donald J. Trump’s experience in the private sector in announcing her support for him.By ALAN RAPPEPORT and MAGGIE HABERMANJanuary 19, 2016

AMES, Iowa — Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice-presidential nominee who became a Tea Party sensation and a favorite of grass-roots conservatives, endorsed Donald J. Trump in Iowa on Tuesday, providing him with a potentially significant boost just 13 days before the state’s caucuses.

“Are you ready for the leader to make America great again?” Mrs. Palin said with Mr. Trump by her side at a rally at Iowa State University. “Are you ready to stump for Trump? I’m here to support the next president of the United States — Donald Trump.”

Her support is the highest-profile backing for a Republican so far. It came the same day that Iowa’s Republican governor, Terry Branstad, said he hoped that Senator Ted Cruz would be defeated in Iowa. The Feb. 1 caucuses are a must-win for the Texas senator, who is running neck-and-neck with Mr. Trump in state polls.

The endorsement came as Mr. Trump was bearing down in the state, holding multiple campaign events and raising expectations about his performance in the nation’s first nominating contest.

As Mrs. Palin announced her backing, Mr. Trump stood wearing a satisfied smile as she scolded mainstream Republicans as sellouts and praised how Mr. Trump had shaken up the party. “He’s been going rogue left and right,” Mrs. Palin said of Mr. Trump, using one of her signature phrases. “That’s why he’s doing so well. He’s been able to tear the veil off this idea of the system.”

It is not clear that Mrs. Palin’s blessing will have a major impact on Mr. Trump’s long-term prospects. But in Iowa, where Mrs. Palin spent years developing a network of supporters, it could be helpful. Mr. Trump has faced questions about whether his campaign’s organizing muscle can draw the voters to match his poll numbers come caucus night.

“Over the years Palin has actually cultivated a number of relationships in Iowa,” said Craig Robinson, the former political director of the Republican Party of Iowa and publisher of the website The Iowa Republican. “There are the Tea Partyactivists who still think she’s great and a breath of fresh air, but she also did a good job of courting Republican donors in the state,” he added.

Other conservatives said that Mrs. Palin serves as a particularly effective shield against Mr. Cruz, who has assiduously courted Iowa’s evangelical voters.

“Palin’s brand among evangelicals is as gold as the faucets in Trump Tower,” said Ralph Reed, the chairman of the Faith and Freedom Coalition.

“Endorsements alone don’t guarantee victory, but Palin’s embrace of Trump may turn the fight over the evangelical vote into a war for the soul of the party,” he said.

Mrs. Palin could amplify the news media-circus aspects of Mr. Trump’s candidacy: She too is a reality television star accustomed to playing to the cameras and often accused of emphasizing flash over substance.

And while Mr. Trump has already shown the ability to garner wall-to-wall cable-news coverage, Mrs. Palin’s involvement in his campaign could help him deprive Mr. Cruz of attention in the homestretch to the caucuses.

As rumors circulated that the endorsement was about to happen, Mr. Cruz offered praise for his former political ally after an aide to the senator mocked the pending endorsement earlier Tuesday. “I love Sarah Palin,” the senator told reporters in New Hampshire. “Sarah Palin is fantastic. Without her friendship and support, I wouldn’t be in the Senate today. So regardless of what Sarah decides to do in 2016, I will always remain a big, big fan of Sarah Palin.”

As word of Mrs. Palin’s endorsement trickled through the Hansen Agriculture Student Learning Center at Iowa State University, the reaction from supporters of Mr. Trump who braved snow and frigid temperatures to see the candidate was mixed. Backers of Mr. Trump filled a warehouse-style building with a dirt floor that is sometimes used for tractor shows, but most said that it was the candidate that they cared about, not his new endorsement.

“I’m not here to see her,” said Rich Hoffmann, 41, of Ankeny. “Some people it will matter to, but it doesn’t to me.”

Mrs. Palin and Mr. Trump are not strangers. The two shared pizza along with Mr. Trump’s wife, Melania, in May 2011, when Mrs. Palin was considering a presidential run of her own and was making a bus tour around the country. (Mr. Trump was mocked at the time for using a knife and fork on his slice.)

They also share a trusted operative: Mr. Trump’s national political director, Michael Glassner, was chief of staff to Mrs. Palin’s political action committee.

And like Mr. Trump, Mrs. Palin has maverick tendencies. The mantra of her final weeks of the 2008 campaign was “going rogue,” as she defied instructions from aides to Senator John McCain of Arizona, the party’s presidential nominee.

Little-known before Mr. McCain picked her as his running mate, Mrs. Palin ultimately eclipsed him in popularity and polls show her maintaining strong support among Republicans. She has endured as a coveted endorser with an impressive fund-raising list. After the loss in 2008, she declined to finish her term in Alaska, and went on to become a television star and a Fox News commentator.

The endorsement of Mr. Trump puts Mrs. Palin back in the center of the media maelstrom, and allows her to rehabilitate her political image, which had diminished in the last year as her contract with Fox News ended.

Mrs. Palin endorsed several of Mr. Trump’s Republican rivals in their statewide races, including Mr. Cruz during his Senate bid in Texas and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky. Mr. Cruz, after his 2012 primary victory over the incumbent lieutenant governor, David Dewhurst, said he would not have made it to the Senate without Mrs. Palin’s backing.

For Mr. Trump, who is trying to accrue other endorsements in the coming weeks, the backing of high-profile Republicans could dent the outsider-to-politics aura that has been elemental to his success in the polls before the voting has begun. But the support of Mrs. Palin, a darling of the Tea Party insurgency, could help inoculate him from such attacks.

The endorsement comes as Mr. Cruz is facing increasing scrutiny in Iowa for his opposition to federal ethanol mandates, highlighted by the criticism from Governor Branstad, whose son works for a group promoting ethanol, the corn-based fuel that is a crucial Iowa industry.

“Ted Cruz is ahead right now. What we’re trying to do is educate the people in the state of Iowa,” Mr. Branstad told reporters at the Renewable Fuels Summit in Altoona. “He is the biggest opponent of renewable fuels. He actually introduced a bill in 2013 to immediately eliminate the Renewable Fuel Standard.”

“He’s heavily financed by Big Oil,” the governor added. “I think it would be a big mistake for Iowa to support him.”

The remark was highly unusual for Mr. Branstad, an establishment Republican who nonetheless has stayed out of his party’s presidential primaries in the past.

COMMENTS

Sarah Palin Endorses Donald Trump, Rallying Conservatives

www.nytimes.com

Sarah Palin at an event in Des Moines last year.By MAGGIE HABERMANJanuary 19, 2016

Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice-presidential nominee who became a Tea Party sensation and a favorite of grass-roots conservatives, will endorse Donald J. Trump in Iowa on Tuesday, officials with his campaign confirmed. The endorsement provides Mr. Trump with a potentially significant boost just 13 days before the state’s caucuses.

“I’m proud to endorse Donald J. Trump for president,” Ms. Palin said in a statement provided by his campaign.

Her support is the highest-profile backing for a Republican contender so far.

“I am greatly honored to receive Sarah’s endorsement,” Mr. Trump said in a statement trumpeting Mrs. Palin’s decision. “She is a friend, and a high-quality person whom I have great respect for. I am proud to have her support.”

Mrs. Palin, who is to appear alongside Mr. Trump at a rally on the Iowa State University campus in Ames late Tuesday afternoon, could amplify the news media-circus aspects of Mr. Trump’s candidacy: Like him, she is a reality-TV star accustomed to playing to the cameras and often accused of emphasizing flash over substance.

But Mrs. Palin, who despite her waning visibility within the Republican Party retains a sizable following, provides Mr. Trump with valuable new currency at a moment when he is being attacked over his conservative bona fides by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, with whom Mr. Trump is neck-and-neck in the Iowa polls.

As Mr. Trump fends off questions about his “New York values” from Mr. Cruz, Mrs. Palin could help vouch for Mr. Trump’s credentials with skeptical conservatives.

What’s more, while Mr. Trump has already shown the ability to garner wall-to-wall cable-news coverage, Mrs. Palin’s active involvement in his campaign could help him deprive Mr. Cruz of vital attention in the homestretch to the Feb. 1 caucuses.

The two are not strangers. Mrs. Palin, Mr. Trump and his wife, Melania, shared a pizza in New York in June 2011, when Mrs. Palin was considering a presidential run of her own and was making a bus tour around the country. (Mr. Trump was mocked at the time for using a knife and fork on his slice.)

They also share a trusted operative: Mr. Trump’s national political director, Michael Glassner, was chief of staff to Mrs. Palin’s political action committee.

And like Mr. Trump, Mrs. Palin has maverick tendencies. The mantra of her final weeks of the 2008 campaign was “going rogue,” as she defied instructions from aides to Senator John McCain of Arizona, the party’s presidential nominee.

Little-known before Mr. McCain picked her as his running mate, Mrs. Palin ultimately eclipsed Mr. McCain in popularity. She has endured as a coveted endorser with an impressive fund-raising list.

Mrs. Palin endorsed several of Mr. Trump’s Republican rivals in their statewide races, including Mr. Cruz in Texas and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky. Mr. Cruz, after his 2012 primary victory over the incumbent lieutenant governor, David Dewhurst, said he would not have made it to the Senate without Mrs. Palin’s backing.

COMMENTS

Is Sarah Palin About to Endorse Trump?

townhall.com

I'll admit it -- when this speculation began mounting yesterday, I wasn't remotely sold on the idea that Palin was poised jump aboard the Trump Train when so many influential figures within the conservative talk radio constellation are at long last blasting The Donald and rallying to Cruz. The Palin speculation seemed even less plausible when this rumor leaked:

Multiple little birdies tell me Jerry Falwell, Jr. is going to endorse Trump for president and come to Iowa with him tomorrow.

— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow)January 18, 2016 Falwell bestowed a fulsome introduction upon Donald "Two Corinthians" Trump just yesterday -- much to the dismay of many in the evangelical community -- so Deace's report made sense. Surely that's the big announcement and "special guest" Trump's been pumping on social media, right?  Not so fast, my friends:

Wow. Palin's jet following Trump campaign; endorsement imminent. Broken via flight records:https://t.co/BALN6KGFSEhttps://t.co/Z4rFX0mirY

— Matt Popovich (@mpopv) January 19, 2016 Interesting. But so what if there's a private jet bound from Anchorage to Iowa? That could be a coincidence. Or...uh, maybe not:

@LPDonovan did you see it went to Tulsa next  https://t.co/T3c292TN11 https://t.co/s6q4PMgPSG

— Andrew Kaczynski (@BuzzFeedAndrew)January 19, 2016 Oh my.  The jet is headed to Ames Des Moines, then hopping over to Tulsa?  Exactly mirroring Trump's campaign itinerary?  Dude. This might actually be happening. And what a splash it would make less than two weeks before Iowa.  Should Palin's endorsement both come to fruition (there have been clues along the way), and push Trump over the top, emotionalist nationalistic populism will have officially -- perhaps temporarily -- supplanted principled, policy-driven, limited-government conservatism as the dominant strain within the American right-wing. I'll leave you with this, because why not?Buckle up, amigos.  If you need me, I'll be passed out under my desk:

Gonna watch the Trump/Palin rally with the largest bottle of bourbon I can find.

— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) January 19, 2016 UPDATE - The Washington Post wonders if the Iowa leg is merely a coincidental refueling stop for an unrelated flight. But that would be out of the way, geographically. The Palin buzz continues to grow, to the point of rival campaigns doing preemptive damage control:

Cruz spokesman: "Deeply" disappointing if Palin endorses Trumphttps://t.co/Iofd2LoB1upic.twitter.com/H1floEjZqA

— The Hill (@thehill) January 19, 2016

COMMENTS

Trump rents Iowa theater to show Benghazi movie

www.desmoinesregister.com

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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump waves to the crowd after speaking at a campaign stop at The Surf Ballroom on Saturday, Jan. 09, 2016, in Clear Lake.(Photo: Brian Powers/The Register)Buy Photo

Donald Trump has rented space at an Urbandale movie theater and will give Iowans free tickets to a showing of the Benghazi movie that critics of Hillary Clinton have been eagerly awaiting.

“Mr. Trump would like all Americans to know the truth about what happened at Benghazi,” the GOP presidential candidate’s Iowa co-chair Tana Goertz said Thursday night.

Trump will pay for the showing of “13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi” at 6 p.m. Friday at the Carmike Cobblestone 9 Theatre at 86th Street and Hickman Road, Goertz said.

“The theater is paid for. The tickets are paid for. You just have to RSVP,” she said.

The movie depicts the terrorist raid on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya on Sept. 11, 2012. It reportedly makes no mention of Clinton, then the U.S. Secretary of State, but has again raised the topic of the Democratic presidential candidate’s role in the tragedy, three months after Republicans grilled her on her response to the attacks during an 11-hour congressional hearing in October.

Trump, a billionaire New York real estate entrepreneur, flies to Iowa for a 10 a.m. campaign rally on Friday at Living History Farms in Urbandale. He’s currently in second place in the GOP presidential race here, trailing Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz by 3 points, the latest Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.

Trump has said he’s willing to spend a billion dollars to win the GOP nomination. “I make $400 million a year so what difference does it make?” he told reporters in Iowa in August.

Tickets for the movie, which opened Thursday, cost about $8 each, the theater’s website shows.

The word "Benghazi" has re-emerged in the GOP race. In the GOP debate in South Carolina Thursday night, presidential rival Jeb Bush was first to bring it up, saying Clinton would “continue down the path of Benghazi” and would be “a national security mess.”

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COMMENTS

Kaufmann: Iowa GOP prepared for absolute avalanche of caucusgoers

www.desmoinesregister.com

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Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann speaks at the 2015 Lincoln Dinner in Des Moines on May 16, 2015.(Photo: Bryon Houlgrave/The Register)Buy Photo

It's impossible to know whether Donald Trump will convince legions of first-time caucusgoers to turn out to vote Feb. 1, but Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said the party is preparing for record-setting turnout just in case.

Kaufmann, who helps oversee the statewide caucus effort, said he believes there are Iowans who are not registered as Republicans and who have never caucused before who would like to do so for the Republican businessman.

"Will those people, on a cold night, come to the school or come to the community center to caucus?" Kaufmann asked. "If the answer to that is yes, I don’t think there’s any doubt we’re going to have a significant turnout that’s going to break the records. It might even shatter the record. We are prepared for that at the party."

Trump, who places at or near the top of most state and national polls, has drawn numerous Iowans to his events who have never caucused before, leading many to wonder whether they'll follow through and caucus Feb. 1. The Trump campaign has focused in recent weeks on making sure event attendees know about the caucus process.

“What you did here today to get here is harder than what you’re going to have to do at caucus night, I promise you that,” Trump's Iowa co-chair, Tana Goertz, told a crowd in Ottumwa Saturday.

Kaufmann said he can't envision a scenario in which Republicans don't surpass the 120,000-person mark, which has been a historical benchmark for both parties.

The 2007 caucuses have been a notable exception, when then-Sen. Barack Obama helped propel record turnout of 240,000 Democrats.

"We are prepared, let's put it that way, for an absolute avalanche of people," said Kaufmann.

But Kaufmann said he's most concerned about ensuring the results are credible, especially following the 2011 caucuses in which the votes were too close to call and a winner was declared prematurely.

"I feel more pressure because of that than I do anything else," Kaufmann said. Though he noted that both parties have worked with Microsoft to upgrade their caucus results reporting system.

"I like where we’re at right now. I like where the Democrats are at right now," he said. "I don’t know that we could be any more prepared going into Feb. 1."

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BREAKING: Trump up by 2 points in Iowa

thehill.com

Donald Trump leads Ted Cruz by 2 percentage points in a new poll from Iowa, suggesting a tightening presidential race ahead of the state’s Feb. 1 caucuses.

Trump leads the GOP field, with 31 percent support, in Quinnipiac University's new poll, followed closely by Cruz's 29 percent. That slim lead is within the poll’s 4-point margin of error.

Voters view Cruz more favorably than they view Trump, however, and more are open to the possibility of voting for him, according to the new findings. 

This is only the third poll of the last 11 in Iowa in which Trump is on top, according to aggregation by RealClearPolitics. Other recent polls have shown Cruz in first place.

Trump in the last week has stepped up attacks on Cruz’s birthplace. Cruz was born in Canada, and Trump argues Democrats could make a case that he is not qualified to be president because he is not a natural born citizen.

Cruz was born to an American mother, and his campaign has argued he is qualified to be president just like 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain, who was born in the Panama Canal zone. Legal experts have long agreed that the Constitution's natural born citizen requirement includes those born to U.S. citizens outside the country.

In the poll, Cruz won more than one-third of the support of white, evangelical Republicans, an important constituency for him that typically makes up the majority of GOP caucusgoers. Trump attracted 27 percent with that group, and Marco Rubio received 13 percent, but other candidates won more than one-tenth of the evangelical vote.

Cruz outperformed Trump among people with college educations, with an income between $50,000 and $100,000, and who consider themselves very conservative. On the flip side, Trump did better among those without a college degree, and those making less than $50,000 and more than $100,000.

In the Quinnipiac poll, Rubio sits in third place, with 15 percent support, followed by Ben Carson, at 7 percent, and Chris Christie, at 4 percent. Jeb Bush has slipped to 3 percent, tied with Mike Huckabee, who won the caucuses in 2008. John Kasich and Rand Paul scored 2 percent; Carly Fiorina and Rick Santorum received 1 percent.

Quinnipiac surveyed 602 likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa between Jan. 5 and Jan. 10.

Updated at 1:11 p.m.

Cruz Opens Big Lead in Iowa, Trump Tops in New Hampshire, South Carolina

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by MIKE FLYNN20 Dec 20154,325

A new CBS poll shows TexasSen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has opened a strong 9 point lead over Donald Trump in Iowa, the first state to vote in the 2016 nominating contest.

Cruz has the support of 40 percent of likely caucus goers, followed by Trump with 31 percent.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is a distant third, with 12 percent support. Neurosurgeon Ben Carson is fourth with just 6 percent support. All other Republican candidates are at 2 percent or less, including Jeb Bush, whose allied super PAC, Right to Rise, has spent millions on advertising in the caucus state.

Together, Trump and Cruz draw more than 70 percent support from likely caucus-goers in Iowa.

Trump, meanwhile, dominates the Republican race in New Hampshire, earning 32 percent support from likely primary voters. Trump’s vote, in fact, is double the support of Ted Cruz who, with 14 percent support, is in second place. Rubio is in third, with 13 percent, followed closely by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 11 percent and Ohio Governor John Kasich at 8 percent.

Jeb Bush is sixth in New Hampshire, with just 6 percent support. Bush, Christie and Kasich have all spent considerable sums advertising in New Hampshire. All three campaigns, or super PACs affiliated with them, have spent several million dollars advertising in the first primary state. Christie and Kasich have clearly gained from the spending, while Bush has lost ground in the Granite State.

Trump also dominates the field in South Carolina, which votes on February 20th, soon after Iowa and New Hampshire. Trump leads with 38 percent, followed again by Cruz with 23 percent. Rubio is 3rd, with 12 percent, followed by Carson with 9 percent and Bush with 7 percent.

In all three states, one issue dominates the political discussion; national security and terrorism. In each state, at least 70 percent of all voters believe America is becoming “more dangerous and insecure.” More than 60 percent of Republicans in each state list national security as the most important issue in 2016.

While the first votes are still several weeks away, voters’ preferences in all three contests are solidifying. More than 60 percent for Republicans in all three states say their minds are made up and are unlikely to change their support. In Iowa, just 25 percent of Republicans say they might still change their minds. In South Carolina and New Hampshire, only about a third of Republicans say they may still change their minds.

After 5 debates and months of intense campaigning, the Republican field is nearing the final turn before voting begins in early February. Trump and Cruz are separating from the pack, with Rubio running a distant third. In New Hampshire, though, the middle of the pack is becoming more crowded.

The race in New Hampshire, in fact, is a reversal of recent political history. Traditionally, several conservative candidates have fought for a clear shot at the establishment frontrunner. This year, however, the establishment candidates are clawing at each other to take on anti-establishment frontrunners.

History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. This year, the rhythm is playing a conservative tune.

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