Friday, May 13, 2016

Trump’s Mission To Make America Great Again: How It’s Been Done, How He Can Do It Again

Listen to Military Veteran Talk Radio iHeart.SmythRadio.com
Facebook.com/SmythRadio

Matt Mills McKnight/Getty Images

by JAMES P. PINKERTON13 May 201651

A key point to remember about American Greatness is that you can see it: It’s tangible.

If America is rich, if its middle class is prosperous, you can tell. If our military is strong, you can see that, too. If we’re winning our wars and destroying our enemies, we know it—and so does the foe. If we are doing cool things, that’s visible, too: It’s our test pilots breaking the sound-barrier, it’s our scientists developing the polio vaccine, it’s our astronauts walking on the moon, it’s our entrepreneurs debuting the next world-changing smart-device or launching the next reusable rocket. Again, the common thread in American Greatness is reality, technology—that is, tangibility.

As a real-estate developer, Donald Trump has been building tangibles all his career. The building, and all its parts, either stands tall and looks good, or it doesn’t. The same holds true for a golf course, or a resort—or even a beauty pageant.

And now, in politics, Trump brings his emphasis on the real, and the tangible, with him as he enters the political arena. When he says, “Build a wall on the US-Mexican border,” everyone can visualize it. Whether one loves the idea—as do a majority of Americans, and an overwhelming majority of Republicans—or hates the idea, it’s a real thing in the mind. When he says he would“bomb the [bleep]” out of ISIS, that’s a real thing, too. Tangible.

No, Trump has never been about intangibles—theories. In business, he made real things, and now, in politics, he describes the real things he will do in office. Real things, we might add, that are in service to America.

Sophisticated observers are noticing that Trump is truly something different. Peggy Noonan, in the April 28 edition of The Wall Street Journal, wrote an important piece, “Simple Patriotism Trumps Ideology.” As she put it, “Mr. Trump’s appeal is simple: What Trump supporters believe, what they perceive as they watch him, is that he is on America’s side.”

Continuing, Noonan added that Trump’s blunt and concrete appeal marks a huge change from the style of his two predecessors, who have dealt mostly in abstractions. Whereas Trump, as we have seen, traffics in tangibles, George W. Bush and Barack Obama traded in intangibles. This lack of specificity, Noonan continued—combined with alien, avant-garde ideology—was disturbing to ordinary Americans:

advertisement

They believe that for 16 years Presidents Bush and Obama were largely about ideologies. They seemed not so much on America’s side as on the side of abstract notions about justice and the needs of the world. Mr. Obama’s ideological notions are leftist, and indeed he is a hero of the international left. He is about international climate-change agreements, and leftist views of gender, race and income equality. Mr. Bush’s White House was driven by a different ideology—neoconservatism, democratizing, nation building, defeating evil in the world, privatizing Social Security.


In other words, too much ideology, not enough practicality—not enough tangibility.

But that’s not Trump’s problem. We don’t hear him saying things like,“Islam is peace,” or “diversity is our strength.” Instead, he is emphasizing real things, like building fences, or bringing jobs home, or destroying ISIS.

A further indicator that Trump is really something different came on March 26, when he identified, in a New York Timesinterview, his two favorite eras in America history. In describing both eras, he was heavy on the tangibles.

The first era was the turn of the 20th century, back when Theodore Roosevelt was our 26th president. As Trump said of that time, “If you really look at it, it was the turn of the [20th] century, that’s when we were a great, when we were really starting to go robust.” Continuing, he added—combining metaphor, literalism, and a dollop of his own pro-business thinking—we were “building that machine, that machine was really based on entrepreneurship.”

The second of those Trump-favorite eras was the middle of the last century: “I would say . . . during the 1940s . . .the late ‘40s and ‘50s . . . we were not pushed around, we were respected by everybody, we had just won a war.” The presidents back then, of course, were Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower; all of them, to use Trumpian language, were definitely winners.

Perhaps it’s just a coincidence, but popular culture today is reinforcing Trump. The new movie, Captain America: Civil War, opened last weekend to a colossal domestic box office gross of $179 million.

advertisement

Okay, but even if the title is Captain America—a character that debuted in the wartime year of 1941—maybe it’s only a movie, and nothing more. Yet Wired magazine, for one, thinks that the success of the film is, in fact, a legitimate indicator.

In an article, “How Captain America Became Marvel’s Big-Screen Secret Weapon,” writer Brian Raftery observes, “Just a few years ago, it would have been hard to imagine a big-name Marvel character less destined for movie-stardom than Captain America.” That is, “In a comic book universe full of coolly vengeful mutants and relatably angsty teen heroes, the World War II-era do-gooder has always seemed almost defiantly square—a throwback to the firm-jaw, firm-handshake era in which he was created.” And yet, continues Raftery, Captain America’s “earnestness and discipline” and “patriotically charged uniform” have struck a chord with today’s audiences. And so, the author concludes, Captain America is now “the most valuable soldier in the Marvel big-screen universe.”

Yes, the country wants something different from what we’ve had. The polls showing huge majorities of Americans declaring that we are on the wrong track are proof of that.

So yeah, it’s about time we had a president who focused on real things—real deliverables for people—and not theories. On May 12, Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland, outlined the failure of the status quo, using cutting words:

Politicians at all levels—obsessed with political correctness, victimhood and identity politics—have dumped billions into failing public schools and universities, financed an increasing array of entitlements instead of adequate public investments in R&D and the infrastructure needed to support a technology-based economy, sowed divisions and suspicion among ethnic groups, between men and women, and the successful and those deserving a genuine hand up.


Continuing in this vein, Morici added:

High schools churn out students unprepared for college or vocational programs, and many university graduates lack the critical thinking and technical skills needed to prosper in a technology-intensive workplace.


To Morici, and all the rest of us, the results of this systemic failure are, well, tangible:

advertisement

Since 2000, annual GDP growth has slowed to 1.7 percent, new business startups and the percentage of adults working are down, and average annual family incomes have slipped $4000.


This is America, 2016; the country, as we know, is currently a mess—and the root of the problem is bad leadership.

If Hillary Clinton thinks that she can run and win on a promise of bringing, in effect, a third term for Obama, well, with apologies to Judas Priest, she’s got another thing coming. Indeed, she faces, one might say, a rendezvous with destiny this November, a rendezvous with a cold and harsh reality. Very cold, very harsh.

Then, beginning in 2017, it will be President Trump’s opportunity to build his vision for America. And it’s a safe bet that, in the spirit of the great 20th century presidents whom Trump admires, that vision will be tangible—tangible as all get-out.

Read More Stories About:

2016 Presidential RaceBig Government

Donald Trump: Obama’s Government Should Get Out of Kids’ Bathrooms, Locker Rooms

Listen to Military Veteran Talk Radio iHeart.SmythRadio.com
Facebook.com/SmythRadio

AP Photos

by NEIL MUNRO13 May 20162,128

The federal government should leave sexual regulation of the nation’s K-12 bathrooms and locker rooms to state and local governments, Donald Trump said in multiple interviews Friday.

“I believe it should be states’ rights and I think the states should make the decision, they’re more capable of making the decision,” Trump told the audience for ABC’s Good Morning America. When pressed, he repeated his pro-federalism policy: “I just think it should be states’ rights. I think many things actually should be states’ rights, but this is a perfect example of it.”

The candidate was asked about bathrooms because of President Barack Obama’s Friday decree that the nation’s 100,000 public schools open their bathrooms and locker rooms to kids of both sexes whenever even a single child or teenager announces he or she has the “gender identity” of the opposite sex. The new rule — which is not law but is backed by federal threats to sue or slash funding — would impact roughly 55 million children.

Trump followed the same pro-federalism script when asked about Obama’s bathroom policy on NBC’s Today show. “I think this should be a states’ issue. It’s become a huge story and yet it affects — and everybody has to be protected, if it’s one person — but it’s a tiny, tiny portion of the population, and it’s become a massive story,” Trump said.

Trump declined to get into the justice of Obama’s support for transgender claims and the “gender identity’ ideology.

Many school officials welcome the new federal ideology of fluid “gender identity,” and many are reluctant to spend the money needed to fight federal or progressive lawyers.

Obama’s imposition of the new “gender identity” policy is likely to be hated by many parents, partly because it tries to exclude them from their children’s sexual development. In general, progressives argue that men and women, young boys and girls, should be free to adopt, create, and discard multiple varieties of temporary “gender identities” as they please, with or without the support of their parents and communities. That gender-fluid society, they insist, would be better than the civic rules which Americans have gradually developed to maximize benefits from the two distinct sexes’ different average capabilities and preferences.

advertisement

Already, in multiple districts, parents are suing and protesting education boards to exclude the “gender identity” regime from their kids’ school lives.

Trump has tried to avoid the issue. In April, he downplayed the issue, saying transgender star Bruce Jenner could use the women’s bathrooms at his hotels. He lamented the cost to businesses caused by political disputes, such as the gender dispute in North Carolina, before he publicly endorsed the federalist argument that the dispute should be delegated to states and cities.

“There have been very few complaints the way it is. People go, they use the bathroom that they feel is appropriate, there has been so little trouble,” Trump said. “North Carolina, what they’re going through with all the business that is leaving and strife — and it’s on both sides — you leave it the way it is,” he said when asked about North Carolina’s law, which protects the sexual privacy of Americans and also allows transgender people to use the other sex’s bathrooms once they go through a medical procedure to change the sex on their birth-certificate.

Shortly afterwards, on Sean Hannity’s radio show, Trump began arguing that the federal government should stay out of bathroom disputes.

“I love North Carolina, and they have a law, and it’s a law that, you know, unfortunately is causing them some problems,” Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity in an interview Thursday night. “And I fully understand that they want to go through, but they are losing business, and they are having people come out against.”

“I think that local communities and states should make the decision,”Trump went on to say. “And I feel very strongly about that. The federal government should not be involved.”

advertisement

“In other words, let the state decide,” Hannity responded. “Kind of like your positions on education, give it back to the states.”

“Yeah, let them decide,” Trump said. “Absolutely.”

Public opinion has shifted rapidly on the issue as voters realize the threat posed by “gender identity” to sexual privacy and to civic rules about the two sexes. For example,Target stores have been hit by a damaging consumer boycott after they imposed a pro-transgender policy that opened single-sex changing rooms to both sexes.

Only about one in every 2,400 Americans have changed their name from one sex to another, according to a recent study of the 2010 census. Even pro-transgender advocates say that only one in 300 Americans are transgender.

For more about the gender identity rule, read here.

Read More Stories About:

2016 Presidential RaceBig Government,Donald TrumpfederalismTransgender

Exclusive — Donald Trump: ‘Clinton Cash’ Proves Hillary Is ‘Crooked As Hell’

Listen to Military Veteran Talk Radio iHeart.SmythRadio.com
Facebook.com/SmythRadio

by MATTHEW BOYLE12 May 2016NEW YORK CITY, New York3,078

NEW YORK CITY, New York — Real estate magnate Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, tells Breitbart News that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is “crooked as hell.”

“That’s why I call her ‘Crooked Hillary,’” Trump replied when Breitbart News asked him during the interview in his Trump Tower office how she could have gone from “dead broke” when she and her husband former President Bill Clinton left the White House to worth hundreds of millions of dollars today. “She’s crooked as hell.”

Trump’s tripling down on his nickname for Clinton–“Crooked Hillary”–comes as the Los Angeles Times reports that the name seems to be sticking to Clinton nationwide.

“All campaign long, pollsters have found that many voters — including some Democrats — don’t think she’s principled,” columnist Doyle McManus wrote this week. “Maybe it’s her four decades in bare-knuckle politics, ancient questions about investment deals in Arkansas, her entanglement in her husband’s personal scandals, her decision to set up a private email server when she was secretary of State, her big-dollar fundraising and speech fees — or all of the above. Fairly or not, Clinton can’t shed her history.”

In this interview with Breitbart News, Trump called out the Clintons for their paid speeches’ connections to actions they took around the world—a theme laid out in both the “Clinton Cash” book by Breitbart News senior editor-at-large and Government Accountability Institute president Peter Schweizer and in the subsequent film on the movie. The film, written and produced by Breitbart News executive chairman and GAI chairman Stephen K. Bannon and Dan Fleuette and directed by M.A. Taylor, will premiere at the Cannes Film Festival in France next week. Trump said the Clinton Cash book is “amazing” and that he is looking forward to seeing the movie.

“They made speeches for a lot of money and then things happened,” Trump told Breitbart News. “I mean, if you read that book, that book is amazing. How’s the movie? Did you see it? Let me know. If Steve [Bannon] is involved, it will be good.”

The film, which was screened for select media and political audiences here in Midtown, Manhattan, on Wednesday and will be again on Thursday, brings to life the revelations of several parts of the Clinton Cash book. It shows on the big screen in graphic detail how the Clintons used their influential connections worldwide to enrich themselves and their millionaire and billionaire friends while empowering many times corrupted world leaders and furthering plight of the world’s needy and poor in places like Africa and Haiti—all while jeopardizing U.S. interests by allowing Russia’s Vladimir Putin to have financial control of U.S. nuclear materials. This reporter saw the film at the screening on Wednesday.

advertisement

Trump also noted to Breitbart News that this pattern of the Clintons pocketing enormous amounts of cash with little effort—in large part due to their governmental connections—is nothing new. He pointed back to an seemingly forgotten scandal from the Clintons’ days in the Arkansas governor’s mansion when then Arkansas First Lady Hillary Clinton—before she was even the First Lady of the United States—made shocking financial gains off cattle purchases she made.

“It’s like her cattle deal, years ago—remember?” Trump said. “She made a cattle deal, and she made a phenomenal return in a very short time. They went to various cattle ranches, and they all said it’s impossible. In other words, she bought cattle and sold it—she made a massive return in a very short period of time. All these cattle people said it was impossible to do.”

Back in May 1994, writing about the 1978 Hillary Clinton cattle deals, the Washington Post’s Charles Babcock detailed exactly how suspect the deals were.

“Hillary Rodham Clinton was allowed to order 10 cattle futures contracts, normally a $12,000 investment, in her first commodity trade in 1978 although she had only $1,000 in her account at the time, according to trade records the White House released yesterday,” Babcock wrote in the Post on May 27, 1994.

The computerized records of her trades, which the White House obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, show for the first time how she was able to turn her initial investment into $6,300 overnight. In about 10 months of trading, she made nearly $100,000, relying heavily on advice from her friend James B. Blair, an experienced futures trader. The new records also raise the possibility that some of her profits — as much as $40,000 – came from larger trades ordered by someone else and then shifted to her account, Leo Melamed, a former chairman of the Merc who reviewed the records for the White House, said in an interview. He said the discrepancies in Clinton’s records also could have been caused by human error.


Trump questioned, in this interview, why Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont—Clinton’s only competitor in the Democratic presidential primary—has largely avoided these serious questions about the Clinton Cash issues during his campaign. Sanders has also given Clinton a pass on the email scandal with regards to her home-brew server, for which she is under criminal investigation by the FBI—which has 147 FBI agents working on the case.

“It’s amazed me that Bernie has not gone after that,” Trump said. “Two things amaze me: He hasn’t gone after the emails, and he hasn’t gone after the Clinton Cash. Unless they have some kind of side deal —which is shocking—it’s inconceivable that Bernie has not gone after that. And it’s also amazing that Bernie has not been complaining more about the super delegates.”

advertisement

Trump also noted that Clinton’s astonishing now 20 losses to Sanders in primaries and caucuses nationwide—but Sanders still trailing Clinton in the delegate race thanks in large part to super delegates who are party insiders not responsive to any voters whatsoever—is “unacceptable.”

“I think it’s unacceptable to a party and it’s a rigged system because of the super delegates, so it’s a very rigged system,” Trump said. “But I think it’s unacceptable to a party—why would anyone accept that, where she’s losing seemingly every single Tuesday? You watch and she loses. And you watch and she loses again. But then the pundits say, ‘oh he can’t win.’ I think it’s unacceptable to have someone lose that much that’s going to represent your party, but that’s their problem not mine.”

Trump said the exit polling from West Virginia showing that sizable portions of Democratic voters will support him in the general election if Hillary Clinton wins her party’s nomination in the end is proof he will win in November. He said they support him because he is strong on national security and right on trade deals.

“Because they know that I’m going to make the country safe and they know I’m going to make great trade deals,” Trump said. “One thing with Bernie that he’s got right is the trade deals are a disaster in this country. The difference is he can’t do anything about it—he wouldn’t know where to begin—whereas I’m going to make bad deals into great deals.”

Read More Stories About:

2016 Presidential RaceBig Government,Bernie SandersClinton CashDonald TrumpGovernment Accountability InstituteHillary ClintonPeter Schweizer,Stephen K. Bannon

TRANNY NOW TROLLING N.C. SELFIES IN ALL THE WRONG BATHROOM

Trans Actress to ‘Piss In All the Wrong Bathrooms’ During North Carolina Tour

Listen to Military Veteran Talk Radio iHeart.SmythRadio.com
Facebook.com/SmythRadio

YouCaring.com

by DANIEL NUSSBAUM12 May 20163,735

A transgender actress and activist preparing to embark on a traveling performance tour of North Carolina plans to take photos of herself urinating “in all the wrong bathrooms” to protest the state’s recent passage of what critics have called an anti-LGBT bathroom law.

Shakina Nayfack is set to perform in Durham, Charlotte and Raleigh next month as part of the Manifest Pussy: Post Op tour. But the state’s recently-enacted HB 2 — which mandates that transgender individuals use the public restroom that corresponds with their biological sex — gave Nayfack an idea for a novel way to protest the law.

“They are trying to create a situation where trans people are supposed to be invisible,” the New York City-based artist told theGuardian this week. “This is an absurd, panicked reaction from the ignorant, it’s a massive step backwards, so I felt it was my duty to go down there and take selfies in as many men’s bathrooms as possible.”

According to the Huffington Post, the actress plans to take photographs in men’s rooms across the state, including of a “well-hydrated visit” to the state Capitol in Raleigh. Nayfack is crowd-funding the tour, with money raised from performances going to organizations in North Carolina working to get the law repealed.

Nayfack reportedly got the idea to crowd-fund the tour based on a previous successful crowdfunding campaign that financed her gender reassignment surgery in Thailand last year.

“[A]s a grassroots trans activist and, God willing, a rising star in the entertainment industry – I can slip in there and make a stand and motivate the people who are dealing with the consequences of this.”

Nayfack is reportedly considering hiring security guards to stand outside the men’s rooms, so as to avoid any physical altercations.

“I’m not looking to confront anyone,” the actress told the Guardian. “If people want to engage me in civil discussion in a bathroom that will be fine. But if people want to come at me, I’ll tell them, well, they could s—k my d—k, but I cut it off.”

Nayfack’s Manifest Pussy tour is scheduled to begin June 9 in Brooklyn, New York.

Earlier this year, the actress joined the cast of the hit Amy Poehler-produced Hulu seriesDifficult People.

A number of high-profile entertainers, including Bruce Springsteen, Ringo Starr and the rock band Pearl Jam, have cancelled concerts in North Carolina to protest the state’s bathroom law.

 Read More Stories About:

Big HollywoodBathroom LawBruce SpringsteenHB 2lgbtManifest Pussy,Shakina NayfackTransgender

Follow Daniel Nussbaum on Twitter:@dznussbaum

Trump: I ‘Like’ Giving Minimum Wage To the States

Listen to Military Veteran Talk Radio iHeart.SmythRadio.com
Facebook.com/SmythRadio

by IAN HANCHETT12 May 2016253

advertisement

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump stated that he likes “giving” the minimum wage “to states to determine” on Thursday’s “Hannity” on the Fox News Channel.

Trump said, [relevant remarks begin around 5:50] “[T]he only thing I am talking about a little bit is I want — I like the idea of the states looking at minimum wage, because if they don’t, New York is totally different than if you go to Alabama or Arkansas…you’re talking about a whole different cost of living. So, what’s good for New York is not necessarily good for some place else. .. So, I really like giving it to states to determine. Plus, they have to compete with each other, among other things, but they have to compete with other. So, I like the concept of giving it to states.”

Follow Ian Hanchett on Twitter@IanHanchett

Read More Stories About:

2016 Presidential RaceBreitbart TV,EconomicsDonald Trumpminimum wage

Thursday, May 12, 2016

Federal Court: Obamacare Insurance Payments Unconstitutional

Listen to Military Veteran Talk Radio iHeart.SmythRadio.com
Facebook.com/SmythRadio

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

by KEN KLUKOWSKI12 May 2016Washington, DC1,188

WASHINGTON—A federal district court held Thursday that the Obama administration’s payments to insurance companies under Obamacare are unconstitutional, since Congress has declined to pass spending bills funding those payments.

Section 1401 of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare) provides taxpayer subsidy payments to people buying insurance from an Obamacare exchange.

Although the ACA provides that such payments are for purchasing insurance from an “exchange established by a state,” the Supreme Court held in a 6-3 decision inKing v. Burwell that “established by a state” also includes the federal government, in addition to states. The three conservative justices on the Supreme Court at the time (Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito) sharply criticized that decision in an energetic dissent, but it remains the law today.

Section 1402 of the ACA reduces insurance deductibles and co-pays, forcing “cost sharing” by insurers. Instead of promising payments to working-income consumers, it promises direct payments to insurance companies. The Obama administration has spent billions of dollars in such payments, even though Congress has not passed laws appropriating the funds.

The U.S. House of Representatives filed suit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, represented by Professor Jonathan Turley from George Washington University. The House sued Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, arguing that § 1401 and § 1402 of the ACA are not an automatic guaranteed payments — and, therefore, that these payments can only be made through Congress’s annual appropriations bills.

First, the Obama administration attempted to get the case dismissed, insisting that the House does not have standing to bring this matter into court at all.

Judge Rosemary Collyer sided with the House, holding that only Congress can decide to spend taxpayer money and that these Obama administration payments injure the House by seizing one of Congress’s constitutional powers. Speaking of the two houses of Congress, she began, “Only these two bodies, acting together, can pass laws—including the laws necessary to spend public money. In this respect, Article I [of the Constitution] is very clear: ‘No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law.’”

advertisement

That ruling is currently before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

Having held that the House has standing, the court today turned to the merits of the case. Collyer held that § 1401 of the ACA is a permanent (or “continuing”) appropriation of funds by Congress, but that § 1402 is not.

Collyer reasoned:

An appropriation must be expressly stated; it cannot be inferred or implied. It is well established that “a direction to pay without a designation of the source of funds is not an appropriation.” The inverse is also true: the designation of a source, without a specific direction to pay, is not an appropriation. Both are required.


There is no such clear spending language in § 1402. Therefore, the district court concluded that the Obama administration’s payments made without annual congressional spending bills for those funds violates Article I, § 9, clause 7 of the Constitution.

Without this diversion of taxpayer funds to insurance companies, individual Americans’ insurance premiums can skyrocket.

This ruling will now be stayed—and thus the administration’s payments will continue—while this case is appealed to the D.C. Circuit. From there, it is likely to go to the Supreme Court.

advertisement

The case is U.S. House of Representatives v. Burwell.

Ken Klukowski is legal editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on Twitter@kenklukowski.

Read More Stories About:

Big GovernmentObamacareaffordable care actappropriationsdistrict courtJack LewobamacareSylvia BurwellU.S. House of Representatives v. Burwell

Gary Welsh Last Ominous Post R.I.P.

Advance Indiana™

Dedicated to the advancement of the State of Indiana by re-affirming our state's constitutional principles that: all people are created equal; no religious test shall be imposed on our public officials and offices of trust; and no special privileges or immunities shall be granted to any class of citizens which are not granted on the same terms to all citizens. Advance Indiana, LLC. Copyright 2005-16. All rights reserved.

Friday, April 29, 2016

New Poll Shows Trump Up In Indiana By Nine Points

Every poll taken in Indiana shows Donald Trumpleading his Republican primary opponents in next week's primary election. The latest poll released by ARG gives Trump a 9-point advantage over his nearest competitor, Ted Cruz. Trump leads Cruz by a 41-32% margin. Kasich is far behind with just 21% of the vote. Trump is leading in almost every category, including likely Republican voters, young and older voters, male and even female voters. 

A second poll released by a Republican pollster, Clout Research, shows the race much closer. Trump is ahead by only two percentage points in that poll over Cruz, 37-35%. Kasich trails with only 16% of the vote.

If I'm not around to see the vote results, my prediction is that Trump wins Indiana with just shy of 50% of the vote, but he will carry every single congressional district and sweep the delegate race--assuming the party-chosen delegates honor their rules-bound commitment to support the winner on the first ballot. Most of those delegates favored John Kasich at the time they were chosen. Only two of the delegates named by state party officials publicly declared their support for Trump, although some have indicated they would feel obligated to support the voters' wishes.

Cruz has made Indiana his last stand. He threw a hail mary pass earlier in the week by naming Carly Fiorina as his running mate in hopes of attracting female voters in next week's primary election. He snagged Gov. Pence's endorsement today, although his favorability numbers aren't so hot right now and that endorsement is likely to further infuriate already alienated Republican and independent voters. Cruz has also taken up residence in the state this past week, criss-crossing the state with multiple appearances. His crowds have been small compared to Trump's rallies.

Trump has had fewer appearances in Indiana, but his rallies have drawn far larger and more enthusiastic crowds. He returns this weekend for rallies in Fort Wayne on Sunday at Memorial Coliseum, and he will close out his campaigning in Indiana at the Century Center in South Bend Monday evening. Click here for information on those events.

Early voting, which started off very slow, has surged and appears to be well above average for presidential primary elections in Indiana in many counties now. Those new voters will favor Trump, not Cruz. The Democratic primary will draw far fewer voters. Clinton should handily defeat Bernie Sanders by a 58-42% margin, helped by those who might have otherwise voted in the Democratic primary choosing to take a Republican ballot instead.

UPDATE: There's a real outlier poll added to the mix late today. IPFW/Downs Center in Fort Wayne released a poll showing Cruz with a double-digit lead of 45 to 29% over Trump. Adding that lopsided poll into the mix makes the RealClearPolitics average show a very tight race, with Trump up about 2%, 37.5-35.2%. 

Gary R. Welsh at 12:21 PM