24Apr16 Sunday Show Notes
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by JOEL B. POLLAK18 Apr 2016391
If the California primary, scheduled for June 7, were held today, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump would likely win 106 delegates — 93 from congressional districts, plus 13 for winning statewide — while
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
97%
would win 66.
Ohio governor John Kasich could win 6 delegates, all from districts currently allocated to Trump, in which case the projection would be Trump 100, Cruz 66, Kasich 6.
The new projections are slightly more favorable for Trump than Breitbart News’previous projection (94 – 72 – 6), and is based on available public polling data, demographic data and qualitative analysis.
That win would likely bring Trump close to the 1,237 delegates for a majority on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July, but not quite over the threshold, leading to a contested convention.
Analysis by the Associated Press estimatesthat Trump would need to win even more decisively in California — capturing 130 delegates — to secure the nomination. That would require winning an additional eight congressional districts relative to what Breitbart News has currently projected.
It is not impossible for Trump to do so, but he will be facing stiff competition from a well-organized, data-driven Cruz campaign.
On the Democratic side, Breitbart News projects that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would win 189 delegates to 128 for rival
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
16%
— before “superdelegates” are taken into account. With that majority, Clinton would likely clinch the Democratic Party’s nomination.
It should be noted that Clinton’s lead in California narrowed considerably, particularly among Latino voters, during the period when Breitbart News’ analysis was undertaken. Therefore it is possible her margin of victory would be somewhat lower than projected. Likewise, Trump’s lead may be less than projected, given that Cruz enjoys a structural advantage in California, where the primary is “closed” — i.e. limited to registered Republicans.
Because the contested delegates in the Democratic primary in California are allocated on a proportional basis within each congressional district, and some districts have more delegates than others, it makes more sense for Clinton and Sanders to concentrate on districts where they are already strongest.
In contrast, because Republican delegates are awarded on a winner-takes-all basis, with three delegates in each district, candidates must venture beyond their “safe” seats to win.
The breakdown of seats in the Republican primary is currently as follows:
Safe Trump (11 districts, 33 delegates): 13, 14, 17, 18, 19, 20, 43, 50, 51, 52, 53Safe Cruz (6 districts, 18 delegates): 4, 9, 10, 16, 21, 23Leans Trump (15 districts, 45 delegates): 2, 8, 11, 26, 28, 29, 32, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 42, 44, 46Leans Cruz (11 districts, 33 delegates): 3, 7 22, 25, 30, 36, 39, 41, 45, 48, 49Possible Kasich (2 districts, 6 delegates): 6, 12Toss-up (8 districts, 24 delegates): 1, 5, 15, 24, 27, 31, 33, 47
The current Breitbart News projection is based on a particular characterization of the race. But it is possible to project different outcomes by varying those assumptions.
It is possible, for example, for Cruz to win the state if he wins all of the “Safe Cruz” seats (18 delegates) and “Leans Cruz” seats (33 delegates); wins all or most of the “Toss-up” seats (24 delegates); and either prevails in the statewide vote (13 delegates) or wins about half of the current “Leans Trump” seats.
Cruz’s task in the state is made easier by the fact that there are so many places where he can compete with Trump. His best targets are in the Los Angeles and Inland Empire regions, where he has been polling well.
To win a large enough majority to secure the nomination outright, Trump will have to win all of the “Safe Trump,” “Leans Trump,” and “Toss-up” seats, and win several of the “Leans Cruz” seats, while denying Kasich victories in the Bay Area.
Kasich could win two, and perhaps as many as four, districts. He would need to focus on the more liberal Bay Area, as well as in beachfront districts in L.A. and Orange County, where he might hope to slip past the frontrunners by presenting himself as an alternative. Winning at least one or two districts would strengthen his case at a contested convention. In the few districts where Kasich is strongest, he is competing directly with Trump, but he is probably a spoiler against Cruz more widely.
Initial district-by-district analysis follows (click for more):
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Big Government, 2016 Presidential Race,Breitbart California, California Primary,Delegates, Republican National Convention,Democratic National Convention
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Donald Trump
Republican presidential front-runner Donald.com Trump erupted on Twitter Sunday night, after a weekend which saw Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas sweep all of Colorado’s 37 delegates without any votes being cast by citizens in a traditional primary process.
“How is it possible that the people of the great State of Colorado never got to vote in the Republican Primary? Great anger – totally unfair!” wrote Trump.
He followed it up with a second tweet: “The people of Colorado had their vote taken away from them by the phony politicians. Biggest story in politics. This will not be allowed!”
It was last August when officials with the Republican Party in Colorado decided it would not let voters take part in the early nomination process.
The Denver Post reported Aug. 25: “The GOP executive committee has voted to cancel the traditional presidential preference poll after the national party changed its rules to require a state’s delegates to support the candidate that wins the caucus vote.”
“It takes Colorado completely off the map” in the primary season, Ryan Call, a former state GOP chairman, told the paper.
In late February, just before Super Tuesday, the Post published a scathing editorial, saying the party blundered on the 2016 presidential caucus:
“GOP leaders have never provided a satisfactory reason for forgoing a presidential preference poll, although party chairman Steve House suggested on radio at one point that too many Republicans would otherwise flock to their local caucus.
“Imagine that: party officials fearing that an interesting race might propel thousands of additional citizens to participate. But of course that might dilute the influence of elites and insiders. You can see why that could upset the faint-hearted.”
One self-avowed Trump supporter took to YouTube to express his displeasure at the process, and burned his Republican registration on camera.
“Republican Party, take note. I think you’re gonna see a whole lot more of these,” he said as he ignited his registration.
“I’ve been in the Republican Party all my life, but I will never be a Republican ever again. …You’ve had it. You’re done. You’re toast. Because I quit the party. I’m voting for Trump, and to hell with the Republican Party.”
The popular Drudge Report news site splashed a headline in red stating, “Cruz celebrates voterless victory.”
The delegate selection process in Colorado is complicated.
The Cortez Journal reported: “Cruz had 17 bound delegates ahead of the Republican state convention. Another four delegates are unpledged but publicly expressed support for the candidate, who hopes to curb momentum seen by front-runner Donald Trump.
“Cruz declared victory in Colorado, pointing out that he won all 21 delegates from the state’s seven congressional assemblies. Another 13 delegates were awarded at the state convention on Saturday. An additional three delegates in Colorado’s 37-member national delegation are unpledged party leaders.”
Cruz himself noted on Saturday, “This has been a remarkable year. I will say this, it hasn’t been boring.”
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