Showing posts with label marco rubio glitch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label marco rubio glitch. Show all posts

Monday, March 21, 2016

Exclusive: Marco Rubio rejected 'unity ticket' with Ted Cruz

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www.politico.com
Ted Cruz’s campaign has been exploring the possibility of forming a unity ticket with ex-rival Marco Rubio — going so far as to conduct polling looking into how the two would perform in upcoming primary states.
The motivation, hashed out in conversations among Cruz’s top aides and donors: to find a way to halt Donald Trump’s march to the Republican nomination.
It’s unclear whether Cruz’s campaign brass views a partnership with Rubio as realistic or quixotic. In Rubio’s orbit, according to three sources, it’s seen as an outright nonstarter — with Rubio telling his team that he isn’t interested.
Yet in recent weeks, within Cruz’s camp, talk of a joint ticket has run rampant. Utah Republican Mike Lee, one of two senators to endorse Cruz, has emerged as an outspoken supporter of a unity ticket — and as a potential broker. The freshman senator, according to several sources briefed on the talks, has reached out repeatedly to Rubio to gauge his interest, but has been rebuffed.
Shortly before Lee endorsed Cruz on March 10, Lee and his advisers discussed the possibility of organizing a meeting between the Utah senator and Rubio in Florida, just days before the state’s primary, according to two sources. The meeting, though, never happened.
A Lee spokesman, Conn Carroll, declined to comment for this story. So, too, did spokespersons for Cruz and Rubio.
But the Cruz camp’s apparent fascination with the idea of joining forces with Rubio didn’t end with Lee’s efforts.
In recent days, Cruz’s team has begun to investigate how the two would fare on a prospective ticket. Over the last week, according to a person familiar with the Cruz team's internal deliberations, the campaign has conducted polling in forthcoming contests — including the the one on Tuesday in Utah — in which questions are posed about the two running side-by-side.
The deliberations come at a time of rising anxiety among Republican leaders and donors about Trump, who many fear is becoming unstoppable. The real estate mogul holds a 256-delegate lead and is seen as the favorite in a number of upcoming primary states, including New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania — contests that could push Trump toward the 1,237 delegate number he needs to secure the Republican nomination.
At the very least, Cruz’s team is hoping for a Rubio endorsement. The two have been in touch since Rubio dropped out last week, and those close to he Florida senator say he’s open to endorsing his Texas colleague — especially if he believes there’s a pathway for Cruz to defeat Trump.
Yet some have pushed for more. Among the Cruz supporters who have been vocal about forging an alliance has been Doug Deason, the son of billionaire mega-donor Darwin Deason, who has deep connections in the Charles and David Koch fundraising network.
On March 2, the day after Super Tuesday, the younger Deason reached out to Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe. Rubio had suffered a rash of defeats the night before, and Deason told Roe that it would make sense to reach out to the Florida senator’s team. By that time, Deason had been talking to a number of major Rubio donors, but now wanted to go to the official campaign to pitch the unity-ticket idea.
In an interview, Deason recalled telling Roe he wanted to call Marc Short, a senior Rubio adviser and former operative for the Koch-founded Freedom Partners political operation. After Roe didn’t object, Deason connected with Short and gave him his pitch.
Short’s response, Deason said, was unequivocal: Rubio wasn’t interested. (Short didn’t respond to a request for comment.)
“Rubio was too pompous too act on it. He believed his own internal polls and there was no swaying him away from staying in the race through the Florida primary,” Deason said. “If he had signed on before the first Super Tuesday, Cruz would have won all of the Texas votes and a lot more delegates. They may have very well won Florida.”
Erick Erickson, a vocal Trump critic who has floated the idea of a Cruz-Rubio alliance and last week organized a call by prominent conservative activists for a Republican “unity ticket,” said he thought it would be “very effective in stopping Trump.”
“I wish they would do it because it would provide counterprogramming to the Donald Trump show,” he said in an interview.
But Rubio’s camp is uniformly dismissive of the idea. “Different combinations have been floating out there for a little while — who could partner up with whom," said Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz, a Rubio endorser. "But I didn’t take it too seriously.”
COMMENTS

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Math and momentum point to Trump, Clinton nominations

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bigstory.ap.org
WASHINGTON (AP) — With math and momentum on his side after more big wins, Republican front-runner Donald Trump called on GOP leaders Wednesday to embrace the public's "tremendous fervor" for his candidacy. If GOP leaders try to deny him the nomination at a contested convention when he is leading the delegate count, Trump predicted, "You'd have riots."
Trump, making a round of calls to morning TV talk shows, predicted he'd amass enough delegates to snag the nomination outright before the Republican convention, but added that "there's going to be a tremendous problem" if the Republican establishment tries to outmaneuver him at the convention. He also said some Republican senators who are publicly trashing him have called him privately to say they want to "become involved" in his campaign, eventually. Trump did not name any.
Democrat Hillary Clinton, ready for a November matchup against Trump, took aim at him after strengthening her position against rival Bernie Sanders with another batch of primary victories of her own.
"Our commander-in-chief has to be able to defend our country, not embarrass it," Clinton said in a speech that largely ignored Sanders. "We can't lose what made America great in the first place."
Clinton triumphed in the Florida, Illinois, Ohio and North Carolina presidential primaries, putting her in a commanding position to become the first woman in U.S. history to win a major-party nomination. Trump strengthened his hand in the Republican race with wins in Florida, North Carolina, and Illinois but fell in Ohio to that state's governor, John Kasich. Votes were also being counted in Missouri, though races in both parties there were too close to call.
Kasich, celebrating his win, told NBC's "Today" show, "I dealt him a very, very big blow to being able to have the number of delegates." He added that neither Trump nor Texas Sen. Cruz can win the general election.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio ended his once-promising campaign after a devastating home-state loss that narrowed the field to just three candidates: Trump, Kasich and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
Even before Tuesday's results, a group of conservatives was planning to meet to discuss ways to stop Trump, including a contested convention or rallying around a third-party candidate. While no such candidate has been identified, the participants in Thursday's meeting planned to discuss ballot access issues, including using an existing third party as a vehicle or securing signatures for an independent bid.
A person familiar with the planning confirmed the meeting on the condition of anonymity because the person was not authorized to discuss the gathering by name.
Even House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., did not rule out the idea of being drafted by the party at the convention.
"People say, 'What about the contested convention?' " Ryan said in an interview with CNBC. "I say, well, there are a lot of people running for president. We'll see. Who knows?"
With more than half the delegates awarded through six weeks of primary voting, Trump is the only Republican candidate with a realistic path to the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination through the traditional route.
Kasich prevented a total Trump takeover by denying him victory in Ohio. But after Tuesday's contests, it's mathematically impossible for the Ohio governor to win a majority of delegates before the GOP's July national convention.
"No candidate will win 1,237 delegates," Kasich's chief strategist, John Weaver, declared in a post-election memo. He suggested Kasich is well-positioned to amass delegates in the upcoming primary contests to help bolster his position in a contested convention.
Cruz is in better position than Kasich, but he too faces a daunting mathematical challenge after losing four of five contests Tuesday. The Texas senator needs to claim roughly 75 percent of the remaining delegates to earn the delegate majority, according to Associated Press delegate projections.
With Rubio out of the race, Cruz welcomed the Florida senator's supporters "with open arms." The fiery conservative tried to cast the GOP nomination battle as a two-person race between himself and Trump.
On the Democratic side, Clinton's victories were blows to Sanders and bolstered her argument that she's the best Democrat to take on the eventual Republican nominee in the general election. Her win in Ohio was a particular relief for her campaign, which grew anxious after Sanders pulled off a surprising win last week in Michigan.
Clinton kept up her large margins with black voters, a crucial group for Democrats in the general election.
Clinton has at least 1,561 delegates, including the superdelegates who are elected officials and party leaders free to support the candidate of their choice. Sanders has at least 800. It takes 2,383 to win the Democratic nomination.
Trump's Florida victory brought his delegate total to 621. Cruz has 396 and Kasich 138. Rubio left the race with 168 delegates.
Clinton was more willing than Republican officials to recognize the likelihood of a Trump nomination, warning supporters that the New York real estate mogul has laid out a "really dangerous path" for the country.
Republican voters continue to back Trump's most controversial proposals, with two-thirds of those who participated in GOP primaries Tuesday saying they support temporarily banning Muslims from the United States, according to exit polls.
"There is great anger, believe me, there is great anger," Trump said of voters.
___
AP writer Stephen Ohlemacher contributed to this report.
COMMENTS

Rubio’s demise marks the last gasp of the Republican reboot

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www.washingtonpost.com



By Robert Costa and Philip Rucker,   
WEST MIAMI, Fla. — Years of carefully laid plans to repackage the Republican Party’s traditional ideas for a fast-changing country came crashing down here on Tuesday when Sen. Marco Rubio suspended his campaign for the presidency after a crippling defeat in his home-state primary.
Since Mitt Romney’s devastating loss in the 2012 presidential election, the Republican National Committee and leading voices at think tanks, editorial boards and Capitol Hill symposiums have charted a path back to the White House based on inclusive rhetoric and a focus on middle-class issues.
Nobody embodied that vision better than Rubio, a charismatic standard-bearer for conservative orthodoxy who readily embraced the proposals of the right’s elite thinkers. The senator from Florida spoke urgently and eloquently about raising stagnant wages and eradicating poverty. He had an immigrant’s tale to match the rhetoric. And on foreign affairs, he was a passionate defender of the GOP’s hawkish tilt.
But Rubio’s once-promising candidacy, as well as the conservative reform movement’s playbook, was spectacularly undone by Donald Trump and his defiant politics of economic and ethnic grievance. The drift toward visceral populism became an all-consuming rush, leaving Rubio and others unable to adjust.
“The party finds itself catching up to its base. Those very elegant papers it published and conferences it held may have been good and smart, but they didn’t really matter,” said William J. Bennett, a conservative talk-show host and former education secretary in Ronald Reagan’s administration. “Instead, everyone who’s been prominent for the last 15 to 20 years finds themselves getting pushed out.”
Rubio’s fall comes weeks after others who advocated for conservative reforms, such as former Florida governor Jeb Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, have dropped out of the race, and as the donors and institutions who have long supported hawkish policies on fiscal and foreign policies find themselves scrambling to hold onto the consensus that has shaped the GOP for decades.
For many of them, Trump represents a threat to the traditional order of the party and its platform. He does not support overhauling Social Security — a key plank for Romney and GOP congressional leaders — and he was a vocal critic of the 2003 invasion of Iraq in its aftermath, setting him apart from much of the party’s high command.
Rubio, whose ascent was propelled by a network of powerful players for years, was supposed to be the candidate best positioned to stop Trump and prevent a Republican rupture.
“Rubio was ready and briefed on policy, that’s for sure, but I just think he never connected,” said former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, who is friendly with Trump. “He sounded like someone who was trying to be a lot for a lot of people. That’s hard to do.”
Following Romney’s defeat in an election many Republicans thought they should have won, party leaders concluded that the only way to regain the presidency would be to engage the growing and diverse electorate that President Obama had won over twice. The RNC drafted an “autopsy” that recommended bolstering appeals to women and minority voters, while reform conservatives drafted their own manifesto.
Rubio had been building his base among these Republicans since January 2011, when he began his Senate term. He joined the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and began to speak at think tanks and meet with scholars, most of them former staffers from George W. Bush’s administration. He hired a number of them for his own staff.
During his breaks in the Senate, Rubio would often tell colleagues how he was reading papers sent to him from former Republican officials or how he was about to have lunch with another bold-faced name from the Bush years. On his computer, he kept a “drop box” of related policy files compiled by his advisers.
Meanwhile, a group of writers and intellectuals on the right were frustrated and stewing about the GOP’s lack of outreach to working-class voters during Romney’s campaign. By 2013, they began to call themselves “reform conservatives” and sought to turn the party policy discussion away from its emphasis on small business and toward working men and women, as well as families, who were struggling.
As Rubio took the lead on immigration reform that year — a move that riled the hard right — he continued to bolster his relationships with reform conservatives who were unveiling plans for new child tax credits and revamped federal subsidies. He put out a book,“American Dreams: Restoring Economic Opportunity for Everyone.”
Rubio followed a similar path with foreign-policy hawks as they began to look for a favorite ahead of the 2016 contest: a flurry of meetings and op-ed articles and, most critically, solidarity on the issues as they bubbled up.
Although Rubio entered 2015 hobbled with parts of the GOP base because of immigration, he carried goodwill among those two constituencies that were driving the Republican establishment: the reformers and the hawks.
“The critique was there: The Republican Party was out of touch,” said Peter Wehner, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and former George W. Bush speechwriter. “But the breakdown occurred because we got into a cycle where policy didn’t matter at all. Policy was not just secondary, but it was almost not even in the conversation. And when people tried to interject policy — whether it was Rubio or Bush or others — there was just no appetite for it. It didn’t catch on.”
Former House speaker Newt Gingrich said that Rubio campaigned in a way that quickly became obsolete.
“Rubio was prepared, much like Jeb Bush, for a reasonable dialogue in Washington policy language, offering positions that reflect 40 years of national security and foreign-policy experts. All of that disappeared. The market didn’t care,” Gingrich said.
Rubio’s hawkish foreign-policy footing, thought to be an asset, was challenged. Trump’s claims of being “militaristic” even though he was inclined against intervention muddled how voters perceived the candidates, disassociating American power with the hawkish ideology of Rubio and the Bush orbit. Trump’s denunciations of George W. Bush’s decision to go into Iraq did not make the hawkish cause any easier.
“Trump has sounded hawkish without sounding graceful, and he’s expressed admiration for authoritarians. So it was a weird mix for all of the candidates,” said Kori Schake, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution who has advised Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). “At the same time, Republicans are still wrestling with the legacies from the Bush administration . . . and I don’t think we’ve made peace on that.”
Ohio Gov. John Kasich, having won his home-state primary on Tuesday, could be someone whom Rubio’s coalition turns to next, although his maverick style has turned off some in the establishment. Still, he, too, holds hawkish views and has a compassionate pitch on domestic policy with a call to help people “living in the shadows.”
Stuart Stevens, who served as chief strategist to Romney’s 2012 campaign, chalked up Rubio’s troubles as a sign of a first-time presidential candidate still learning how to run nationally and inspire voters, rather than as a sign of the Republican Party cracking apart. In a year infused with anger, he said, Rubio failed to meet the moment with the policies he had spent years studying.
“Rubio had been told that he’s the future of the party. But it’s not enough to say, ‘I have a great future, vote for me,’ ” Stevens said. “You have to do more than use your biography. You’ve got to connect your ideas in a real way to the economy. . . . People ended up walking out of Rubio rallies misty-eyed and out of Trump rallies with blood in their eyes.”
Whit Ayres, Rubio’s pollster, spent the last several years compiling data and published a book showing that Republicans could not afford to alienate minority voters, especially Hispanics, if they ever hope to retake the White House. Watching Rubio’s concession speech on Tuesday night, Ayres was despondent.
“After 2012,” he said, “you thought we’d learned our lesson.”
Ed O’Keefe in Miami contributed to this report.
COMMENTS

Friday, March 11, 2016

Dr. Ben Carson Endorses Donald Trump

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AP/Lynne Sladky
by ALEX SWOYER11 Mar 2016Washington, DC503
GOP presidential candidate Dr. Ben Carson endorsed GOP frontrunner Donald Trump on Friday morning in Palm Beach, Florida during a press conference.
“Everybody loves him and truly, truly admires what he’s done,” Trump said of Carson as he introduced him at the press conference. “I just want to tell you having his support really adds total credence to what I’m trying to do and what we’re all trying to do.”
“It’s not about the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, it’s about the people of America,” Carson said. “I want the voice of the people to be heard.”
Carson also said it is important to let the political process play out how it should by the will of the voters.
“I’ve come to know Donald Trump over the last few years. He is actually a very intelligent man who cares deeply about America,” Carson added, explaining there are two different Donald Trumps, one that is cerebral and one that is seen on stage.
“We buried the hatchet,” Carson said, addressing political swipes back and forth against each other on the campaign trail. “That was political stuff.”
Trump said Carson will be involved in the educational system in America and healthcare, “where he’s an expert.”
Carson officially suspended his campaign last week after failing to gain traction on Super Tuesday.
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Thursday, March 10, 2016

Jeb Bush and Nephew Neil Bush joins Cruz finance team

March 08, 2016 - 02:22 PM EST
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BY BEN KAMISAR6527 SharesTWEET SHARE MORE
Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz's campaign has brought a Bush into the fold.

Neil Bush, son of former President George H.W. Bush and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, is joining Cruz's national finance team, the campaign said Tuesday.

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Neil Bush and his wife, Maria, were among the 13 new additions to the team the campaign announced in a news release.

“We are seeing incredible momentum around our campaign,” Cruz says in the release, which notes that he has raised $1.5 million in the past seven days. 

“I am thrilled to welcome these new members to our outstanding team. This race is winnowing down between two candidates and this is further testament that conservatives are continuing to unite behind this campaign.”

Neil Bush is a Houston-area businessman and philanthropist who has never waded into electoral politics as a candidate. 

Jeb Bush ran against Cruz for the GOP nomination this year but ended his campaign last month after a poor showing in South Carolina's primary

The Marco Rubio post-mortem: How a supposedly ready-made GOP nominee crashed and burned

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www.salon.com
Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears. I come not to praise Marco Rubio – dear God, never, ever that – but to bury him. And then to salt the earth in the hope that he will never come back.
The Rubio campaign is on its last legs, stumbling dehydrated and desperate through the Florida Everglades like the heroine in the second act of a Carl Hiaasen novel, trying to stay one step ahead of the bloodhounds who want nothing more than to drag the Florida senator into the swamp and tear his throat out, or at least convince him to join with Ted Cruz on some sort of unity ticket to stop Donald Trump, which might be an even worse fate.
The establishment is telling Rubio his dropping out would be for the good of the Republican Party. Which is why he’ll probably at least consider it. He is a party man through and through, and since he gave up his Senate seat to run for president, he’s going to want to come out of this cluster-screw of a campaign with something to show for it besides the humiliation of a crushing defeat in his home state’s primary on Tuesday. Run for vice-president on a ticket with Cruz, the party will whisper in his ear, and when he gets destroyed in the general election in the fall and the country suffers through four years of socialism under a Democrat, you’ll be perfectly positioned to be the 2020 nominee. What’s not to like about that scenario? And why wouldn’t you trust a GOP establishment that has displayed such a sharp political acumen this cycle that it just about handed its nomination over to a jar of orange marmalade in a bad wig before it knew what hit it?
Rubio might not be smart, but he’s a politician who can read poll numbers. It must have sunk in by now that his “Baghdad Bob” primary strategy (claim victory even when you came in a distant third/the American military is a block away and roaring towards you unopposed) has been a galactic failure. With even his financial backers and editorial page cheerleaders telling him it’s time, he must feel like Butch Coolidge getting the order to take his ass down in the fifth.
The post-mortem on Rubio’s campaign will point to many, many moments that sealed his fate. The base never fully trusted him after his role in the Gang of Eight immigration reform bill in the Senate, which he later had to renounce in the hope of pacifying the conservative mouth-breathers who were inundating his office with hate mail. There was his apparent circuit-breaker malfunctionin the New Hampshire debate against Chris Christie. There was his late-in-the-campaign attempt to turn into Don Rickles in order to stand up to Trump, which only seemed to cause his poll numbers to crash. There were his ham-handed attempts to get to the farthest right edge of the Republican field on every issue from abortion to fighting terrorism, the latter of which resulted in his spouting the sorts of fearful, doom-laden paranoia about ISIS terrorists coming ashore in Biscayne Bay that might tickle the GOP base but erased Rubio’s image as the sunny and optimistic young man who could lead America into a booming future.
It is that last one that I think comes closest to explaining his flameout. It stems from the 30,000-feet view of Marco Rubio the politician, an ambitious young man with no accomplishments or real-world experience to qualify him, who would don whatever suit – neocon hawk, religious extremist, crazy guy hollering about a war on Christianity from a steam grate – he or his advisers thought the GOP electorate wanted at any given moment, no matter how awkward the fit. He was the best example of a blow-dried establishment candidate this cycle, so perfect he might have been grown in that space station lab in “Alien: Resurrection” where they kept all those malformed Ripley clones, and raised to be the great hope of the Republican Party. In an era where carefully maintaining and presenting a focus group-approved persona to the world is the paramount goal of almost every politician at the national level, Rubio still stood out for how many of his edges had been sanded off.
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Rubio was the product of personal ambition in overdrive and married to a Republican Party that has bought so fully into the idea that our current president was elected despite being an unaccomplished lightweight, all it had to do was roll out another young, telegenic pol with a non-WASPy last name and the White House would be the GOP’s to lose. Never mind the lack of accomplishments, or the fact he was a career politician who had barely seen a time in his adult life when he wasn’t collecting a government paycheck while dining with lobbyists. Never mind that when he spoke in debates, his talking points, which were mostly warmed-over standard-issue conservative pabulum, all sounded so memorized that you could half-imagine him cramming with flash cards the night before in a dorm room decorated with a Dan Marino poster. Never mind the awkward attempts to connect with young people – did you know that Marcoloves the rap music? – while spouting anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage positions that are as out of place in the twenty-first century as a horse and buggy.
It would have been much more hilarious, if it hadn’t also felt so desperate.
Rubio and his handlers seemed to think he could cruise to the nomination on the strength of an appeal that was as chimerical as a unicorn. To that end, he never really built much of a ground game for his campaign, a fact that observers have been harping on for months. His team seemed to think that it was running some sort of high-tech, futuristic operation where retail politics didn’t matter, where you could, as one adviser infamously put it, save on office rent by having your entire team set up in a Starbucks and use the free wifi. Meanwhile, he seemed to spend as much time huddling with wealthy financial backers behind closed doors as he did getting in front of voters. And while he was flying around being not quite as visible as he needed to be to voters, Rubio missed so much time at his day job, and publicly proclaimed he didn’t care because the Senate bored him anyway, that it became easy to view him as a lazy, entitled dilettante. No amount of repeating the story of his humble beginnings – did you know his dad was a bartender? – was going to overcome that.
It’s possible he could still come back and run for statewide office in Florida, but one has to think Rubio’s career in national politics is over. Whatever has been loosed in the electorate that gave rise to Donald Trump is not likely to fade anytime soon. There is no room in that space for a guy so transparent, if you squint hard enough you can see what he ate for lunch. All the image consultants in the world can’t cover that up.
COMMENTS

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

A newly released poll shows the populist power of Donald Trump

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By Michael Tesler January 27

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally last month in Mesa, Ariz. (Ross D. Franklin/AP)
Commentators have argued for months that Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has the potential to unite white Americans’ ethnic and economic anxieties into a powerful populist coalition.
For example, Lee Drutman noted that ethnically conservative and economically progressive populists who want increased spending on Social Security and a decrease in immigration vastly outnumber political conservatives and business Republicans. “So when Trump speaks out both against immigration and against fellow Republicans who want to cut Social Security,” Drutman wrote, “he’s speaking out for a lot of people.”
New data show just how successful Trump has been. The data come from the RAND Corp.’s Presidential Election Panel Survey (PEPS), a collaborative project between RAND and the political scientists John Sides, Lynn Vavreck and myself. In the first of six PEPS surveys, a nationally representative sample of more than 3,000 respondents was interviewed in late December and early January (more details here). The initial survey results were released Wednesday.
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Particularly important in this survey is its detailed measurement of attitudes toward racial and ethnic groups, as well as economic liberalism.
The PEPS follows prior research and measures resentment toward African Americans and immigrants with statements like “blacks could be just as well off as whites if they only tried harder” and “it bothers me when I come in contact with immigrants who speak little or no English.” It also contains a measure of ethnocentrism developed by Donald Kinder and Cindy Kam, which compares how favorably respondents rated whites to how favorably they rated minority groups.
Finally, the PEPS included questions about taxes, the minimum wage, government health care, big business and labor unions — which together form a reliable measure of economic liberalism.
Most striking is how each of these measures strongly correlates with support for Trump. The graph below shows that Trump performs best among Americans who express more resentment toward African Americans and immigrants and who tend to evaluate whites more favorably than minority groups.

Graph by Michael Tesler
Moreover, statistical models show that each of these three attitudes about minorities contributes independently to Trump’s vote share.  So much so, in fact, that GOP primary voters who score in the top 25 percent of their party on all three measures are 44 points more likely to support Donald Trump than those who score in the bottom 25 percent.
On economic issues, Trump separates himself even more from his closest competitor in the PEPS survey, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.).  The graph below shows that Cruz outperforms Trump by about 15 percentage points among the most economically conservative Republicans. But Cruz loses to Trump by over 30 points among the quarter of Republicans who hold progressive positions on health care, taxes, the minimum wage and unions.
Graph by Michael Tesler
It appears from the PEPS data, then, that the Trump coalition unites resentment of minority groups with support for economically progressive policies.
That is also the takeaway from a collection of 19 surveys that have been conducted byYouGov every week or every other week between June 13 and Jan. 19.  Each of those surveys asked its respondents to rate how important the issues of immigration and Social Security were to them.
The graph below shows that Trump’s support throughout the past several months has been particularly strong among Republicans who think that both immigration and Social Security are “very important.” GOP voters who prioritize both issues are now about 40 points more likely to support Trump than Republicans who did not prioritize either.
Graph by Michael Tesler
These findings dovetail with multiple publicopinion polls showing that Trump performs best among anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim Republicans. Doug Ahler and David Broockman have also shown that Trump is particularly popular with Republicans who have conservative positions on immigration and liberal positions on taxes.
These findings also support the idea thatTrump’s appeal mirrors Nixonian populism’s blend of racial conservatism with tacit support for the welfare state — a blend often seen in Europe’s right-wing populist parties as well as the presidentialbid of George Wallace.
Of course, Trump does not always take liberal positions on economic issues.  He opposes raising the minimum wage and has proposed a massive tax cut on high incomes. Yet Trump has repeatedly bucked conservative orthodoxy on such issues as protecting Social Security and Medicare, campaign finance reform, governmental health insurance, infrastructure spending and free trade.
Nevertheless, economically progressive positions, combined with Trump’s harsh rhetoric about minority groups, seem to have created a powerful populist coalition that has made Trump the front-runner heading into the Iowa caucuses.
Michael Tesler is assistant professor of political science at UC Irvine, co-author of “Obama’s Race,” and author of the forthcoming, “Post-Racial or Most-Racial? Race and Politics in the Obama Era

Trump to Establishment: It's Time To Unify, We Could Win This Easily

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www.realclearpolitics.com
At a press conference held after his victories in the Michigan and Mississippi Republican presidential primaries, Donald Trump called on the Republican party to come together and unify behind him.
"Given your statement to Major [Garrett] about how easy it would be to beat Hillary Clinton do you agree you're going to need to get mainstream Republican politicians, the establishment as it has been labeled behind you? And if so, what do you say to them tonight, given so many are pouring their money in to trying to beat you?" FOX News' Campaign Carl Cameron asked Trump.
"I say let's come together folks," Trump said Tuesday night. "We're going to win. I say let's come together. Carl, the answer is not 100 percent but largely I would say yes. Some people you are just not going to get along with. It's okay."
"I am a unifier," Trump said in Jupiter, Florida tonight. "I unify. You look at all of the things I built all over the world. I'm a unifier. I get along with people. I have great relationships. I even start getting along with you, right? Campaign Carl. But, no, I get along with people. And I really say this, Carl, I think it's time to unify."
CARL CAMERON, FOX NEWS: Given your statement to Major [Garrett] about how easy it would be to beat Hillary Clinton do you agree you're going to need to get mainstream Republican politicians, the establishment as it has been labeled behind you? And if so, what do you say to them tonight, given so many are pouring their money in to trying to beat you?
DONALD TRUMP: I say let's come together folks. We're going to win. I say let's come together. Carl, the answer is not 100 percent but largely I would say yes. Some people you are just not going to get along with. It's okay.
But largely I would like to do that and believe it or not, I am a unifier. I unify. You look at all of the things I built all over the world. I'm a unifier. I get along with people. I have great relations. I even start getting along with you, right? Campaign Carl. But, no, I get along with people. And I really say this, Carl, I think it's time to unify.
We have something special going on in the Republican party. And, unfortunately, the people in the party, they call them the elites or they call them whatever they call them. But those are the people that don't respect it yet. We have millions and millions of people, I've discussed it before. We have millions and millions of people coming up and voting, largely for me.
It's a record. It has never happened before. In 100 years what is happening now to the Republican party has never happened before.
COMMENTS

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Romney sends out anti-Trump robo-calls for Rubio, Kasich | Fox News

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www.foxnews.com

Mitt Romney is blasting out robo-calls on behalf of Marco Rubio and John Kasich -- and against Donald Trump -- in the states voting Tuesday, marking his most direct appeal yet on behalf of any candidate since he delivered a scorching condemnation of Trump’s candidacy last week.
Voters are going to the polls Tuesday in Republican contests in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii.
Romney’s team still insists the party’s 2012 presidential nominee is not endorsing any candidate, describing the latest robo-calls as more a bid to combat Trump than an indicator of support for Rubio or Kasich. Romney reportedly did pro-Rubio calls in all four states holding contests Tuesday, and recorded a pro-Kasich call in Michigan only. 
"Gov. Romney has offered and is glad to help Sen. Marco Rubio, Sen. Ted Cruz, and Gov. John Kasich in any way he can,” a source close to Romney said in a statement. “He's been clear that he believes that Donald Trump is not the best person to represent the Republican Party and will do what he can to support a strong nominee who holds conservative values to win back the White House. "
Romney, though, is walking a fine line as he launches his anti-Trump campaign.
He insists he’s not endorsing anyone, and is not entering the race himself -- and only wants to boost Trump’s rivals in states where they have a chance of beating the Republican front-runner, with the apparent goal of depriving Trump of the delegates needed to clinch the nomination.
The robo-calls indeed are more about Trump than any rival candidate.
According to a copy of the pro-Rubio message obtained by The New York Times, which first reported the story, Romney indicates that he’s calling on behalf of Rubio and then urges voters to support “a candidate who can defeat Hillary Clinton and who can make us proud.”
“If we Republicans were to choose Donald Trump as our nominee, I believe that the prospects for a safe and prosperous future would be greatly diminished — and I’m convinced Donald Trump would lose to Hillary Clinton,” Romney reportedly says.
Still, it’s unclear why Romney chose to record most the calls on behalf of Rubio. 
Rubio is trailing in the polls in Michigan -- which offers the biggest delegate prize among primaries being held on Tuesday. Trump has held the lead there, but faces the closest challenge from Ohio Gov. Kasich and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
Rubio has won only two of 20 contests to date – Puerto Rico and Minnesota – but is banking on winning his home state of Florida next Tuesday. Trump, though, continues to lead in the polls in the Sunshine State and is working hard to knock out Rubio next week.
Fox News’ Serafin Gomez and Jessica O'Hara contributed to this report.
COMMENTS

Poll: Mitt Romney Helped Donald Trump, More Voters Now More Likely to Support the Billionaire

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by ALEX SWOYER8 Mar 2016Washington, DC26
Former Republican Party nominee Mitt Romney’s speech last week, trashing GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, did little to dissuade voters from supporting the New York real estate mogul.
Thirty-one percent of Republican voters, after Romney called Trump “a phony,” said they are now more likely to cast a vote for Trump and 30 percent of the voters who supported Romney in 2012 said they are more likely to vote for Trump, according to a new Morning Consult poll released Tuesday.
Roughly 20 percent of GOP voters said they’re less likely to support Trump. Forty-three percent of the voters said they didn’t think Romney’s criticisms had an impact.
The Morning Consult poll also suggests Republican voters favor Trump over Romney, as the real estate mogul has a slightly higher favorability rating.
The poll suggests Trump has a 55-42 favorability rating, while the former Massachusetts governor’s favorability rating is 51-41.
Only five percent of Trump supporters polled said they are now less likely to support the frontrunner.
Despite Romney’s speech having little to no effect on Trump, the poll did find that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is closing in on the billionaire.
According to the poll, Cruz increased eight percentage points and is now within 17 points of Trump.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) remained in third place with 14 percent. Ohio Gov. John Kasich ranked fourth at 10 percent; however, his support has doubled since the previous poll.
The poll questioned 2,019 registered voters online from March 4th to March 6th. It has a margin of error of plus or minus two percent.
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Former NSA Director Hayden admitts his GOP hate back fires hits Cruz

***Horse Race LiveWire*** Super Tuesday: Part Deux

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by BREITBART NEWS8 Mar 20161038
Welcome to Breitbart News’s daily live updates of the 2016 horse race. 
10:36 – Former NSA Director Michael Hayden: Trump is making us unsafe!
10:33 – Erick Erickson: #NeverTrump is becoming #NeverTed which is bad so Rubio needs to drop out.
I helped launch the #NeverTrump movement with my piece written late two Friday’s ago. That night it got over 60,000 hits and the #NeverTrump hashtag became a worldwide trend. Credit for the hashtag goes to my friend Aaron Gardner. I’d used #AgainstTrump, the title of the National Reviewcover, but Aaron suggested I change it.
What I am seeing at this point, however, is that #NeverTrump is guaranteeing Trump’s nomination because #NeverTrump is really #NeverTed. Many of the most vocal supporters of the #NeverTrump movement are Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) supporters and they are handing the nomination to Trump because they cannot face the reality of this election.
The only way to stop Trump now is to ally with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). But too many of the #NeverTrump brigade are really #NeverTed. They don’t want to look at the math, they don’t want to look at the road ahead, they don’t want Ted Cruz. They’d rather lose with Rubio and stay home in November than ally with Ted Cruz and even have a shot in November.

That is genuinely unfortunate and will either guarantee Trump is the nominee or guarantee the Republican Party is destroyed. Marco Rubio, a great man with a struggling campaign, has a cult of personality every bit as committed as Trump’s. The difference is that Rubio’s cult will give us Trump where Trump’s cult alone never could.

10:29 – Bret Baier: Republicans in DC are saying privately that they’ll vote for Hillary just to keep their power over the party.
Fox News Channel anchor Bret Baier said it’s possible that some Republicans will vote for Hillary Clinton just to stop Donald Trump from taking over the party.
“Listen, there are Republicans in Washington who are privately saying that already,” Baier told TheWrap on Monday. “Maybe some don’t publicly say it, but I think there are some who are that adamant about it who would.”

10:17 – Purported Cruz campaign email monopolizes on CNN’s Rubio report:
10:15 – Romney robocall for Kasich in Michigan–seems he’s all about the brokered convention rather than an anti-Trump candidate winning a majority of delegates:
“Hello, this is Mitt Romney calling, and I’m calling on behalf Kasich for America,” the former Massachusetts governor and 2012 Republican presidential nominee, says at the beginning of the call, audio of which was shared by the Kasich campaign.
“Today you have the opportunity in Michigan to vote for a Republican nominee for president,” Romney continues. “These are critical times that demand a serious, thoughtful commander-in-chief. If we Republicans were to choose Donald Trump as our nominee, the prospects for a safe and prosperous future would be greatly diminished — and I’m convinced Donald Trump would lose to Hillary Clinton. Please vote today for a candidate who can defeat HC and who can make us proud.”

10:09 – Kasich throws some shade on Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)’ campaign during a Morning Joe appearance (Bernie has won eight more states that Kasich):
10:04 – Another finding from the Morning Consult poll: Mitt Romney’s speech was anet positive for Trump.
A new Morning Consult poll finds that Mitt Romney’s speech last weekcondemning Donald Trump apparently had very little effect on the GOP front-runner.
Thirty-one percent of GOP voters said they were more likely to vote for Trump, while 20 percent said less likely, and 43 percent said it had no impact either way.

9:57 – Morning Consult national poll: Trump 40, Cruz 23, Rubio 14, Kasich 10. Big gains for Cruz & Kasich:
In the latest survey, taken March 4 through March 6, Cruz picked up 8 percentage points to pull within 17 points of Trump. It’s a 12-point swing from our previous poll after the New Yorker dropped four percentage points.

9:54 – NYT op-ed: “Donald Trump Doesn’t Understand Common Core (and Neither Do His Rivals)”
9:46 – Mitt Romney does a GOTV robocall for Rubio:
9:40 – From the “You Have to Go Back” file:
An Egyptian Muslim man who threatened to kill Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will leave the US of his own accord this week, his lawyers say.
23-year-old aviation student Emadeldin Elsayed was arrested in February by US Customs and Immigration Enforcement (ICE) agents, after posting an article about Trump on Facebook, along with the comment: “I literally don’t mind taking a lifetime sentence in jail for killing this guy, I would actually be doing the whole world a favor.”
One day after posting the status on February 3, Secret Service agents called him in for questioning and searched his property and phone. They then arrested him less than two weeks later.

9:23 – On Rubio’s “half-empty conference room” in Tampa: “No, I’m here to see the trainwreck.”
The man was standing alone, leaning against the wall in the still half-empty conference room that the Marco Rubio campaign had rented for the senator’s “big” Tampa rally. It was only 15 minutes before start time, and people were only trickling in.
“Are you a Rubio supporter?” I asked the 60-something gentleman.
“No. I’m just here to see the train wreck.”


9:10 – WaPo poll: Trump’s unfavorables among Republicans in the fifties and sixties.

“Yeah, I sort of do,” Trump said on “Fox and Friends” when asked if he thought it was wrong to have the contested convention if he’s leading in the delegate count but fails to reach the required 1,237 delegates.
“I think that whoever is leading at the end should sort of get it. That’s the way that democracy works,” Trump said on the program.

 
8:51 – Wapo poll: Trump loses to Cruz and Rubio in one-on-one race.
In hypothetical two-way matchups, Cruz leads Trump by 54-41 percent and Rubio leads Trump by 51-45 percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. While the latter lead isn’t statistically significant, both are further signs of the apparent limits to Trump’s popularity within his party. Indeed, among non-Trump supporters, seven in 10 say they’d prefer Cruz, and as many say they’d pick Rubio, in head-to-head contests.

 
8:44 – Wapo poll: National race tightens. Trump 34%, Cruz 25%.
Trump continues to lead in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, with 34 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents who are registered to vote saying they’d like to see him win the nomination. But he trails both Cruz and Rubio one-on-one. And preferences for Cruz, Rubio and John Kasich have grown as others have left the race, while Trump’s support has essentially remained unchanged for months.
In the current multi-candidate race, 25 percent say they’d like to see Cruz win the nomination, with 18 percent for Rubio and 13 percent for Kasich; those are +4, +7 and +11 points compared with January, respectively, to new highs for each. Trump, by contrast, peaked at 38 percent in December.

 
Tonight’s primaries in Michigan and Mississippi — as well as the contests in Idaho (primary) and Hawaii (caucus) — are important for Donald Trump to regain his momentum heading into next week’s winner-take-all primaries and increase his narrow delegate lead over Ted Cruz.
Is Trump losing ground? Or were last weekend’s results due more to the fact that they were closed contests (not open to non-Republicans)? We’ll find out tonight. Both Michigan and Mississippi are open primaries, and Trump SHOULD win them by double digits; Trump is way ahead in the Michigan polls.

 
8:22 – Mickey Kaus sees through the Establishment Matrix

8:02 – Trump releases Trump University video that purports to show glowing report cards from two of the three students currently starring in attack ads against him.
Using what might be the most dishonest headline of all time, the Huffington Post accuses Trump of threatening students.
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Seeing Trump as Unstoppable, GOP elites now eye a contested convention

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www.washingtonpost.com
PARK CITY, Utah — The presentation is an 11th-hour rebuttal to the fatalism permeating the Republican establishment: Slide by slide, state by state, it calculates how Donald Trump could be denied the nomination.
Marco Rubio wins Florida. John Kasich wins Ohio. Ted Cruz notches victories in the Midwest and Mountain West. And the results in California and other states are jumbled enough to leave Trump three dozen delegates short of the 1,237 required — forcing a contested convention in Cleveland in July.
The slide show, shared with The Washington Post by two operatives advising one of a handful of anti-Trump super PACs, encapsulates the newly emboldened view of many GOP leaders and donors. They see a clearer path to stopping Trump following his two losses and two narrower-than-expected wins on Saturday.
In private conversations in recent days at a Republican Governors Association retreat here in Park City and at a gathering of conservative policy minds and financiers in Sea Island, Ga., there was an emerging consensus that Trump is vulnerable and that a continued blitz of attacks could puncture the billionaire mogul’s support and leave him limping onto the convention floor.
But the slow-bleed strategy is risky and hinges on Trump losing Florida, Illinois and Ohio on March 15; wins in all three would set him on track to amass the majority of delegates. Even as some party figures see glimmers of hope that Trump could be overtaken, others believe any stop-Trump efforts could prove futile.
This moment of confusion for the Republican Party is made more uncertain by the absence of a clear alternative to Trump. Cruz, Rubio and Kasich each are collecting delegates and vowing to fight through the spring. Among GOP elites, the only agreed-upon mission is to minimize Trump’s share of the delegates to enable an opponent to mount a credible convention challenge.
“It’s one thing if [Trump] goes to the convention and he’s got 48 percent, 49 percent of the delegates,” Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam, a Rubio supporter, said in an interview here. “Then it’s a hard thing to see if there’s a convention floor battle. But if he goes to the convention and he’s got 35 or 40 percent, that’s a whole different thing.”
Other governors voiced exasperation not only at the prospect of a Trump nomination, but at the political culture that gave rise to his candidacy.
“We’ve got this Enquirer magazine mentality,” Utah Gov. Gary Herbert said in an interview. “We are subject to this reality TV voyeurism that is taking place. Fast-food headlines, no substance, all flash. The Twitter atmosphere out there, snarky comments on email, Snapchat. Everything is superficial.. . .We’ve got to wake up, America.”
Similar conversations were underway in Sea Island, where the American Enterprise Institute think tank held a policy forum.
“Despite the fact that the story right now is panic in the streets, throw the baby out the window and hope the firefighter catchers her. . .hope springs eternal,” said Arthur C. Brooks, the AEI president. “Nothing is inevitable.”
Trump could get a bounce on Tuesday with the Michigan and Mississippi primaries, which he is expected to win though there are signs of tightening. But next Tuesday is seen as the more decisive moment, with winner-take-all Florida as ground zero — and where polls show Trump’s lead slipping.
The “Stop Trump” movement’s leading super PAC, Our Principles PAC, is adopting what its operatives call a “surround sound” strategy in Florida: More than $3 million in television advertisements, plus direct mail pieces, digital ads, phone banking and emails — all designed to sow doubts about Trump’s character, convictions and fitness for office.
“There is now a silver bullet,” said Brian Baker, a strategist involved with planning the super PAC’s activities. “It’s the cumulative effect of all of these messages.”
Baker also advises the political work of the billionaire Ricketts family, whose matriarch, Marlene, gave $3 million in seed money to Our Principles PAC. Baker and Michael Meyers, president of TargetPoint Consulting, developed the delegate count slide show that was shared with The Post.
Our Principles PAC is also eyeing an aggressive push into Ohio, where Kasich is governor, and has prepared a possible television ad casting Trump as an outsourcer because his branded clothing is made in China and Bangladesh, the group’s advisers said.
Katie Packer, the super PAC’s president, said, “His path to 1,237 goes through Florida, Ohio and Illinois. If he can’t win at least two of those places, it’s going to be very, very tough for him to get to 1,237.”
The super PAC is attracting new donors, including Randy Kendrick, wife of the Arizona Diamondbacks owner, who said she was moved to act by Trump’s provocative rhetoric. “Dictators arose because good people did not stand up and say, ‘It’s wrong to scapegoat minorities,’” Kendrick said.
Some party establishment figures are assisting the super PAC, including former New Hampshire governor John Sununu, who confirmed that he has been calling friends urging them to make donations.
A separate group, American Future Fund, also is trying to take Trump down on the Florida airwaves with $2.75 million in a series of ads there. Some spots feature people who claim they were duped by Trump University while others star veterans speaking out against him or characterize some of Trump’s business associates as shady.
A third group, Club for Growth, is advertising against Trump in Florida and Illinois and is assessing a possible barrage in Ohio as well. David McIntosh, the Club for Growth’s president, said donors recently were hesitant to fund anti-Trump ads, but have come around the past couple of weeks.
“After South Carolina, I got questions — ‘Can he be stopped? You’re running a fool’s errand,’” McIntosh said. “My answer was, ‘It worked [in Iowa], and even more importantly, it has to be done. We can’t just cede this ground.”
Trump retaliated Monday with atough ad depicting Rubio as a fraud and ticking through the greatest hits in the senator’s opposition research file. The narrator calls Rubio, “another corrupt, all-talk, no-action politician.”
For Cruz and his allies, the intensity of the anti-Trump ad campaign is welcome relief. Their main target, at least in Florida, is Rubio, hoping that a home-state loss would force him to drop out.
“There is so much anti-Trump messaging out there, it’s flooded,” said Kellyanne Conway, president of Keep the Promise I, a pro-Cruz super PAC. “What could we say that isn’t out there?”
Some Republican donors are not on board with trashing Trump, however.
“There’s a group that thinks, look, Trump is likely to be inevitable here and let’s not tarnish him,” said Fred Malek, the RGA’s finance chairman.
Strategist Liz Mair said she has found it difficult to convince many donors to pony up to Make America Awesome, her anti-Trump super PAC.
“Republican donors are acting like the parents of teenage alcoholics,” Mair said. “They see all the signs of problems, but they don’t really want to admit and address the problem because that would entail them acknowledging that they didn’t do the right things along the way.”
Idaho Gov. Butch Otter, who met with many donors in Park City over the weekend, said he heard “a lot of concern” about the GOP’s fracturing.
“There’s people that always say, ‘You’ve got to go negative,’ and I really struggle with that,” Otter said in an interview. “To, in a gentlemanly way or a lady-like way, point out the other person’s record is one thing. But to get into some kind of a name-calling deal I don’t think is very beneficial.”
But Haslam, the Tennessee governor, reiterated the urgency of slowing Trump now before he accumulates too many delegates. Otherwise, party elites risk the appearance of trying to steal the nomination from him at the convention.
“That is probably the most dangerous situation for the Republican Party,” Haslam said. “If he gets there with not a majority but close to a majority of the [delegates] and doesn’t get the nomination, that’ll be very difficult. He could say, ‘I’m going to ask all of my folks to sit this one out to show them how big we are.’ Who knows?”
Matea Gold in Washington contributed to this report.
COMMENTS

Monday, March 7, 2016

Some Rubio advisers say get out before Florida

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www.cnn.com
Washington (CNN)A battle is being waged within Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's campaign about whether he should even remain in the Republican presidential race ahead of his home state primary on March 15, sources say.
Rubio himself is "bullish" on his odds of winning the critical primary, despite some advisers who are less hopeful and believe a loss there would damage him politically in both the short- and long-term.
Publicly, the campaign is maintaining they are still a contender in this race, touting a Sunday win in Puerto Rico's primary that delivered Rubio 23 delegates. But privately, the campaign is having a debate about whether he should remain in the mix -- even for his home state of Florida's primary.
"He doesn't want to get killed in his home state," one source familiar with the discussions said, noting "a poor showing would be a risk and hurt his political future."
Alex Conant, Rubio's communication director, said the report of such an internal debate is "100% false."
"That is fiction," he told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on "The Situation Room."
"I was sitting in a senior staff meeting planning out next week's schedule when I saw this report suddenly air and I came racing across town to correct it," he added.
Conant pointed to the fact that Rubio appears to be closing in on GOP front-runner Donald Trump's lead in Florida.
A Monmouth poll released Monday shows Rubio behind Trump, 38% to 30%. A Quinnipiac poll released two weeks ago put Rubio behind Trump by a wider margin: 44% to 28%.
Most of the senator's advisers agree he does not have a path to the nomination and some are advising him to get out ahead of the March 15 primary.
Polls show Rubio trailing GOP front-runner Donald Trump in Florida. A Monmouth poll released Monday shows Rubio behind Trump, 38% to 30%. A Quinnipiac poll released two weeks ago put Rubio behind Trump by a wider margin: 44% to 28%.
Most of his advisers agree he does not have a path to the nomination and some are advising him to get out ahead of the March 15 primary.
Sources within the campaign also say the pressure will only continue to mount following an expected disappointing showing Tuesday, when voters in Michigan, Mississippi, Hawaii and Idaho make their picks in the GOP primary.
"Not going to have a great day is an understatement," one campaign source said.
Weighing the costs
There are two lines of thought within the campaign: getting out before Florida, and hanging in there.
On the one hand, some advisers are warning that if Rubio does poorly in his home state, it could not only hurt his presidential campaign but also his future politically, including a potential gubernatorial run in 2018 or chance to be on the ticket as a vice presidential candidate.
"Cruz won his home state. If Rubio can't win his, that's a problem," one prominent supporter said.
But others within the campaign are urging Rubio to stay in the race, predicting a better-than-expected finish in Florida.
Rubio's victory for his Senate seat against the governor makes him optimistic he can come from behind, said one source close to the campaign. The senator also believes his experience in the state translates to a superior ground game and infrastructure than that of his competitors.
The latter line of thinking seems to be winning, for the moment. But a particularly awful Tuesday could change the rationale, a source warned.
The endorsement game
One potential x-factor in the Florida contest is the looming possibility of an endorsement from once-rival Jeb Bush. But Rubio and Bush, the former Florida governor, have spoken three times since Bush dropped out of the 2016 last month and the Rubio campaign is not expecting an endorsement.
Rubio raised the possibility in the latter two conversations, sources said, but felt Bush was "vague about his interest" and Rubio came away under the impression that Bush would not endorse.
The fellow Floridian is a long-time friend and mentor of Rubio's, but they clashed as opponents during the GOP primary. Many of Bush's backers endorsed Rubio after the former governor departed the race, and others who had stayed out of it put their support behind Rubio.
But not all of Bush's supporters moved over, and some talk of bad blood has hung over the relationship between the two campaigns.
Romney role
Other political insiders are closely watching to see what former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney decides to do. The 2012 GOP nominee delivered a speech last week excoriating Trump -- but he did not endorse any of the remaining Trump rivals.
Romney is going to continue with that anti-Trump campaign, a source close to the former governor said, adding that while he is not running, he is open to the possibility -- however remote -- of stepping into a brokered convention as a consensus pick.
Sources familiar say that Romney isn't working with any of the non-Trump campaigns, but part of his resistance to throwing his support behind one is to leave his own options open.
COMMENTS

TRUMP SHAKES UP NEW WORLD ORDER

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Mon Mar 7, 2016 | 2:41 PM EST
Foreign diplomats voicing alarm to U.S. officials about Trump


By Mark Hosenball, Arshad Mohammed and Matt Spetalnick
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Foreign diplomats are expressing alarm to U.S. government officials about what they say are inflammatory and insulting public statements by Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, according to senior U.S. officials.
Officials from Europe, the Middle East, Latin America and Asia have complained in recent private conversations, mostly about the xenophobic nature of Trump's statements, said three U.S. officials, who all declined to be identified.
"As the (Trump) rhetoric has continued, and in some cases amped up, so, too, have concerns by certain leaders around the world," said one of the officials.
The three officials declined to disclose a full list of countries whose diplomats have complained, but two said they included at least India, South Korea, Japan and Mexico.
U.S. officials said it was highly unusual for foreign diplomats to express concern, even privately, about candidates in the midst of a presidential campaign. U.S. allies in particular usually don't want to be seen as meddling in domestic politics, mindful that they will have to work with whoever wins.
Senior leaders in several countries -- including Britain, Mexico, France, and Canada -- have already made public comments criticizing Trump's positions. German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel branded him a threat to peace and prosperity in an interview published on Sunday.
Trump's campaign did not respond to requests for comment on the private diplomatic complaints.
Japan's embassy declined to comment. The Indian and South Korean embassies did not respond to requests for comment.
A spokesperson for the Mexican government would not confirm any private complaints but noted that its top diplomat, Claudia Ruiz Massieu, said last week that Trump's policies and comments were "ignorant and racist" and that his plan to build a border wall to stop illegal immigration was "absurd."
The foreign officials have been particularly disturbed by the anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim themes that the billionaire real estate mogul has pushed, according to the U.S. officials.
European and Middle Eastern government representatives have expressed dismay to U.S. officials about anti-Muslim declarations by Trump that they say are being used in recruiting pitches by the Islamic State and other violent jihadist groups.
On Dec. 7, Trump’s campaign issued a written statement saying that he was “calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on.”
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Trump subsequently said in television interviews that American Muslims traveling abroad would be allowed to return to the country, as would Muslim members of the U.S. military or Muslim athletes coming to compete in the United States.
There are also concerns abroad that the United States would become more insular under Trump, who has pledged to tear up international trade agreements and push allies to take a bigger role in tackling Middle East conflicts.
“European diplomats are constantly asking about Trump's rise with disbelief and, now, growing panic," said a senior NATO official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"With the EU facing an existential crisis, there's more than the usual anxiety about the U.S. turning inward when Europe needs U.S. support more than ever."
Another of the senior U.S. officials said the complaints are coming mostly from mid-to-low ranking diplomats – described as “working level” - rather than from the most senior officials.
"The responses have ranged from amusement to befuddlement to curiosity," the official said. "In some cases, we've heard expressions of alarm, but those have been more in response to the anti-immigrant and anti-refugee sentiment as well as the general sense of xenophobia.”
More than a hundred Republican foreign policy veterans pledged this week to oppose Trump, saying in an open letter that his proposals would undermine U.S. security.

"A LOT OF QUESTIONS"
On Tuesday, General Philip Breedlove, the United States' top military commander in Europe, said that the U.S. elections were stirring concerns among America's allies.
“I get a lot of questions from our European counterparts on our election process this time in general," said Breedlove, who did not mention Trump by name. "And I think they see a very different sort of public discussion than they have in the past

TRUMP WILL CLOSE THE DEAL OF A LIFETIME.


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March 5, 2016 | 11:24pm



At the end of “The Candidate,” the  engrossing 1972 film about the underbelly of campaigns, rookie  politician Robert Redford is  shocked by his triumph. Grabbing his handler, he pleads, “What do we do now?”

http://robert-redford.tumblr.com/post/26120460774/iwantcupcakes-the-candidate-1972



In a case of life imitating art, Donald Trump finds himself in a similar situation. His improbable run is rocking and shocking the world, but after each victory, the climb only gets steeper.
The home stretch of the nomination race is going to be ferocious, and if he survives, he faces a general-election war against Hillary Clinton that would be unlike any in modern times.
Is Trump built to go the distance? Can the author of “The Art of the Deal” close the deal of a lifetime?
Yes he can. He can get a majority of delegates and beat Clinton, too. But he’ll have to tone down the juvenile nastiness, flesh out and stick to clear policies and build a national campaign infrastructure. Oh, and he’ll need to spend real money, at least $1 billion, either his own or other people’s.
The list is a tall order, but doable. Moreover, Trump starts this new phase with advantages, not the least of which is a passionately devoted base of support and the fact that he won’t need to make the usual tricky pivot toward the center for the general election.
Despite a hard line on immigration, he’s already close to the center in other ways, with his support for the non-abortion work of Planned Parenthood a prime example. On other conservative litmus tests, including taxes and gun control, his is the most liberal record a Republican front-runner has had in more than half a century, so supporting him in the general wouldn’t be an impossible leap for moderates.
That head start would give him an edge over Clinton, who faces a lot of repair work after she finally dispatches Bernie Sanders. Her drift toward socialism to head him off leaves her far from the center, where most independents are.
But it won’t be easy for her to move right because the Sanders wing, which doesn’t trust or like her, won’t give her a free pass. Those hurdles don’t include the potentially fatal FBI probe hanging over her.
But Clinton is not Trump’s immediate problem — consolidating the fractured Republican Party is. Reports of the GOP’s imminent demise are frequent, but not yet irreversible fact. There is still time for Trump to demonstrate that he is a leader and not just a human wrecking ball.
Roughly speaking, he must fix three problems:
First: His me-me-me ego can be a turn-off to Main Street Republicans who are culturally wary of braggarts, so he needs to talk less about himself and more about the Americans he’s trying to enlist. Off-the-cuff is interesting until he wanders off into the weeds of TrumpLand.
Second: His stumbles and lack of knowledge on foreign affairs give cold shivers to policy and intellectual conservatives. He needs to develop a brain trust that can get him up to speed on major hot spots. Respected advisers can also act as surrogates to comfort others who don’t know or trust a candidate.
And, third: His relationship with congressional Republicans, which is somewhere between frosty and nonexistent. The aim of holding the Senate should be a common ­denominator, especially with the Supreme Court in the balance. As virtual head of his party, Trump would need to keep congressional candidates’ interests in mind.
Now is the time to address those concerns and stop making new enemies. Already he faces upwards of $20 million in negative ads in Florida that aim to hand the winner-take-all delegate pot to Marco Rubio. And there’s talk that Rubio and Ted Cruz will take a dive in Ohio so Gov. John ­Kasich doesn’t have to split the anti-Trump vote there.
The aim is to block him from getting a majority of delegates and set up a contested convention. The weaknesses of the plan are many, including that there is no broadly acceptable alternative to Trump. Mitt Romney would be run out of town by Trump’s voters, and there would be a lasting schism, and a Clinton victory, if a maneuver hands the nomination to a rival who has fewer delegates than he does.
Those factors make consolidation difficult, but necessary. One poll found that 27 percent of GOP voters would pick Clinton over Trump, a shockingly large defection he must prevent.
Luckily for him, he can kill two birds with one stone. In addition to helping him secure the nomination, beginning the hard work of uniting the party would bolster his chances in the fall.
Attracting independents and crossover Democrats is important, but there aren’t enough available, so he needs to unite the GOP and build on it.
By all indications, he realizes as much. At Thursday’s bruising debate, he stressed that he’s a negotiator and that not all his positions are carved in stone, including on immigration, which had to please some who fear he is too dogmatic.
Two days before that, on Super Tuesday night, he held a press conference instead of a victory rally, and threw a change-up instead of a fastball. He was more gracious than usual and talked of uniting the party, leading a very skeptical friend to note that it was the first time he saw Trump looking presidential.
“Look, I’m a unifier,” the candidate said. “I know people are going to find that a little bit hard to believe, but ­believe me, I am a unifier.”
He added: “And we are going to be a much bigger party . . . That hasn’t happened to the Republican Party in many, many decades. So I think we’re going to be more inclusive. I think we’re going to be more unified.”
The numbers make his point. On Super Tuesday, Republican turnout increased by 81 percent, from 4.7 million in 2012 to 8.5 million last week, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump is clearly the straw stirring the GOP drink for good.
And for bad. In late January, before voting started, Gallup found that he had a 60 percent unfavorable rating among all voters, the highest it has found among any major candidate going back to 1992. By contrast, Hillary Clinton’s highest negative has been 53 percent, and in 2012, President Obama and Romney both maxed out at 48 percent.
Of course, Trump must broaden his base without losing too much of the street-fighter attitude that is key to his appeal. He will have to hold his tongue and control his hyper-competitiveness by reminding himself that the election is about America.
To keep his eye on the prize, he might channel his inner Vince Lombardi, the legendary football coach who also was excellent at closing the deal. “Winning isn’t everything,” Lombardi said, “it’s the only thing.