Smyth Radio: Hiller Instinct: 7News/UMass Lowell New Hampshire tracking poll day 4

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MANCHESTER, N.H. (WHDH) -

It's not an earthquake, yet...But the political ground in New Hampshire is moving.

We're seeing more of Iowa's impact, and the war of words underway here.

Hillary Clinton is coming back; and Marco Rubio is coming up.

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Donald Trump stays in first, with 36%; Rubio takes over second place, with 15%. Ted Cruz, now in third, has 14%. Jeb Bush, 8%; and John Kasich 7%.

For the rest of the Republicans: Chris Christie, 5 %, Ben Carson, 4%; Carly Fiorina 3% and undecided 8%.

Our tracking poll show its all: Trump on top, but down two points-- the first time he's dropped in our poll.

Marco Rubio shoots into second place, with 15%, a gain of three points overnight.

Ted Cruz holds his support, but slips into third place.

Jeb Bush lost a point; no change for John Kasich.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton can start thinking about a comeback, and Bernie Sanders is coming down.

Sanders still has a significant lead over Clinton-- 58% to 36%-- a 22 point margin.

But look at the direction of the tracks: Sanders is down three and Clinton is up four, our biggest single gain since we started this poll.

You see the trends, and so will the candidates.

They're good for Rubio and Clinton... and not very good for anyone else.

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders need to win big here, and our tracking poll shows both are losing ground right now.

This time next week, we'll know the winners.

Between now and then, this is the best way to see who's going to win.

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