Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Hillary Clinton Has The Most Statistically Improbable Coin-Toss Luck Ever


www.theblaze.com

DES MOINES, Iowa — One of the most bizarre details to emerge from Monday’s Iowa caucuses was that in six Democratic counties, the ownership of six delegates was decided by a coin flip.

A single delegate remained unassigned at the end of caucusing in two precincts in Des Moines, one precinct in Ames, one in Newton, one in West Branch and one in Davenport, The Des Moines Register reported.

In all six instances, the coin toss was won by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

There may have been more coin tosses, but those are the ones we know about for now.

Now, get ready to do some math.

In a single coin toss, the probability of calling the toss correctly is 50 percent, or one in two. Heads or tails.

But the probably of winning every flip out of six flips is one in 64, or 1.56 percent.

The online study tool “Coin Toss Probability Calculator” has a really intense formula that explains why, but the bottom line is, the probabilities stack on each other.

You’re 50 percent likely to win one coin flip. But you’re only 25 percent likely to win two consecutive coin flips, because there are now twice as many possible outcomes. So bump that up to six coin flips, and your chances of winning them all are slim:

TutorVista.com

And the bottom line is, Clinton won the Iowa caucuses on a coin flip.

Here’s why: Each coin flip decided a delegate.

Clinton’s final delegate count was 699.57, according to the Iowa Democratic Party. Sanders’ was 695.49.

If Sanders had won half of the coin tosses and split the six delegates three and three with Clinton, he would have finished at 698.49 delegates to Clinton’s 696.57.

Follow the author of this story on Twitter and Facebook:Follow @LeighMunsil

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Donald Trump: Finishes Second In Iowa, ‘I’m Just Honored’

by ALEX SWOYER1 Feb 2016West Des Moines, Iowa1,602

WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — GOP frontrunner Donald Trump – who placed second in the Iowa caucus to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)– told his supporters at his Iowa caucus party in West Des Moines, Iowa on Monday night, “We will go on to win the Republican nomination.”

“We finished second and I want to tell you something, I’m just honored,” Trump said, adding, “I want to congratulate Ted.”

“Tomorrow afternoon, we’ll be in New Hampshire,” Trump said, as he plans to move forward on the campaign trail. “It’s going to be a great week.”

“We will go on to get the Republican nomination,” Trump promised his supporters, saying he’ll then go on to beat Hillary Clinton or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) – whoever the Democrats nominate.

“We will be back many, many times,” he promised Iowans, adding he “might come here and buy a farm.”

“I love you people. I love you people. Thank you,” Trump said as he came into the caucus party. “I have to start by saying I absolutely love the people of Iowa – unbelievable.”

Trump said that he was advised not to go to Iowa when he first announced his presidential campaign on June 16th, because he wouldn’t finish in the top ten, but he thought, “Let’s give it a shot.”

Trump also wished congratulations to the other GOP candidates including former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee “who has become a really good friend of mine.” Huckabee suspended his campaign on Monday night following the Iowa caucus results.

“We will continue to have a great team. We’re just so happy with the way everything worked out,” the real estate mogul added. “I just want to thank my family. They’ve been so amazing and so supporting.”

He said they’ll move on to New Hampshire and South Carolina and be “proclaiming victory, I hope.”

 

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Palin: Tonight ‘America Wins’ Against ‘Permanent Political Class’

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by BREITBART NEWS1 Feb 2016559

Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin posted the following to her Facebook page tonight after the GOP Iowa caucus results were announced showing Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) winning, followed by Donald Trump coming in second, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in third:

Tonight = America wins, the permanent political class does not, and that is good! To restore Constitutional government the status quo has got to go; the Iowa caucus proves many Americans feel the same. The top three candidates, fueled by our independent, grassroots tea party movement, take 70% of the vote in this unique Iowa caucus. Now this healthy, hearty competition moves to NH, SC and beyond. Those of us proud to be on Team Trump thank Iowa supporters and look forward to forging ahead to make America great again with the candidate proving a record of success and strength that is so needed. The tangible Commonsense Conservative solutions requiring a doer, not a talker, will restore American exceptionalism. Onward and upward, America!


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Cruz: IA Results ‘Victory For the Grassroots,’ GOP Nominee Won’t Be Picked By Establishment, ‘Reagan Coalition’ Coming Back


by IAN HANCHETT1 Feb 2016449

Republican presidential candidate Texas Senator Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) declared, “Tonight is a victory for the grassroots” and “Iowa has sent notice that the Republican nominee, and the next president of the United States, will not be chosen by the media, will not be chosen by the Washington establishment, will not be chosen by the lobbyists” while saying the Washington cartel is scared that “the old Reagan coalition is coming back together” during a speech on Monday after he won the Iowa caucus.

Cruz stated, “God bless the great state of Iowa! Let me first of all say, to God be the glory. Tonight is a victory for the grassroots. Tonight, is a victory for courageous conservatives across Iowa, and all across this great nation. Tonight, the state of Iowa has spoken. Iowa has sent notice that the Republican nominee, and the next president of the United States, will not be chosen by the media, will not be chosen by the Washington establishment, will not be chosen by the lobbyists, but will be chosen by the most incredible powerful force, where all sovereignty resides in our nation, by we the people, the American people.”

He continued, “Tonight is a victory for millions of Americans, who have shouldered the burden of seven years of Washington deals run amok. Tonight is a victory for every American whose watched in dismay as career politicians in Washington, in both parties, refuse to listen, and too often fail to keep their commitments to the people. Tonight is a victory for every American who understands, that after we’ve survived eight long years of the Obama presidency, that no one personality can right the wrongs done by Washington, the millions who understand that it is a commitment to the Constitution, to our shared insistence that we rise and return to a higher standard, the very standard that gave birth to the greatest nation that the world has ever known, to the revolutionary understanding that all men and all women are created equal, that our rights do not come from the Democratic Party, or the Republican Party, or even from the Tea Party. Our rights come from our creator, and the federal government’s role, the federal government’s responsibility, is to defend those fundamental rights, to defend us. And while Americans will continue to suffer, under a president who has set an agenda that is causing millions to hurt across this country, I want to remind you of the promise of Scripture, ‘[W]eeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning.’ Tonight, Iowa has proclaimed to the world, morning is coming.”

Cruz added, “From day one, this campaign has been a movement, from millions of Americans across this country, to organize, to rally, to come together, whatever Washington says, they cannot keep the people down, and tonight is a testament to the people’s commitments to their yearnings to get back to our core commitment, free market principals, constitutional liberties and the Judeo-Christian values that built this great nation.”

Later on, after thanking those who supported him, Cruz stated, “Do you want to know what scares the Washington Cartel? Actually,…I don’t scare them in the tiniest bit. What scares them is you. What scares them is that the old Reagan coalition is coming back together.”

After thanking his family, Cruz said, “[L]et me speak for a minute to the men and women of the state of New Hampshire, 36 years ago, you welcomed to the Granite State, a candidate running for president who was also deeply disliked by the Washington establishment and the Washington cartel. A candidate who had been dismissed outright by the media, some polls had him 15 points to 20 points behind, but you refused to let the establishment and the cartel and the media do your thinking for you. You refused to let them tell you how to vote. You wanted a candidate who didn’t adopt his positions because of the latest opinion polls, but instead, because of a deep and underlying conservative philosophy, that grounded him, so that he knew exactly what he believed, exactly what the principles were that built this great nation.”

Follow Ian Hanchett on Twitter@IanHanchett

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Donald Trump: Finishes Second In Iowa, ‘I’m Just Honored’

by ALEX SWOYER1 Feb 2016West Des Moines, Iowa1,375

WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — GOP frontrunner Donald Trump – who placed second in the Iowa caucus to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)– told his supporters at his Iowa caucus party in West Des Moines, Iowa on Monday night, “We will go on to win the Republican nomination.”

“We finished second and I want to tell you something, I’m just honored,” Trump said, adding, “I want to congratulate Ted.”

“Tomorrow afternoon, we’ll be in New Hampshire,” Trump said, as he plans to move forward on the campaign trail. “It’s going to be a great week.”

“We will go on to get the Republican nomination,” Trump promised his supporters, saying he’ll then go on to beat Hillary Clinton or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) – whoever the Democrats nominate.

“We will be back many, many times,” he promised Iowans, adding he “might come here and buy a farm.”

“I love you people. I love you people. Thank you,” Trump said as he came into the caucus party. “I have to start by saying I absolutely love the people of Iowa – unbelievable.”

Trump said that he was advised not to go to Iowa when he first announced his presidential campaign on June 16th, because he wouldn’t finish in the top ten, but he thought, “Let’s give it a shot.”

Trump also wished congratulations to the other GOP candidates including former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee “who has become a really good friend of mine.” Huckabee suspended his campaign on Monday night following the Iowa caucus results.

“We will continue to have a great team. We’re just so happy with the way everything worked out,” the real estate mogul added. “I just want to thank my family. They’ve been so amazing and so supporting.”

He said they’ll move on to New Hampshire and South Carolina and be “proclaiming victory, I hope.”

 

Read More Stories About:

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Sanders rally chant: 'She's a liar!'

www.politico.com

Tweets from https://twitter.com/politico/lists/team-politico

The crowd booed loudly at first, then cheered when the sound cut out. | Getty

DES MOINES, Iowa — The room at Bernie Sanders' rally here turned ice cold when Hillary Clinton's speech took over the televisions here.

The crowd booed loudly at first, then cheered when the sound cut out. The sound soon returned and Clinton was drowned out by further boos when she said "I'm a progressive who gets things done."

It escalated from there: Chants of "She's a liar!" took over the room before the campaign just entirely shut off the stream, cutting away from MSNBC entirely.

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Sometimes, Iowa Democrats award caucus delegates with a coin flip

www.desmoinesregister.com

The caucus mathematics worksheet from the Ames 2-4 precinct in Story County came down to a coin toss. Hillary Clinton was awarded a contested delegate after a coin toss.(Photo: Special to the Regsiter)

In a handful of Democratic caucus precincts Monday, a delegate was awarded with a coin toss.

It happened in precinct 2-4 in Ames, where supporters of candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton disputed the results after 60 caucus participants apparently disappeared from the proceedings.

As a result of the coin toss, Clinton was awarded an additional delegate, meaning she took five of the precinct’s eight, while Sanders received three.

Here’s what happened, according to David Schweingruber, an associate professor of sociology at Iowa State University (and Sanders supporter) who participated in the caucus:

A total of 484 eligible caucus attendees were initially recorded at the site. But when each candidate’s preference group was counted, Clinton had 240 supporters, Sanders had 179 and Martin O’Malley had five (causing him to be declared non-viable).

Those figures add up to just 424 participants, leaving 60 apparently missing. When those numbers were plugged into the formula that determines delegate allocations, Clinton received four delegates and Sanders received three — leaving one delegate unassigned.

Unable to account for that numerical discrepancy and the orphan delegate it produced, the Sanders campaign challenged the results and precinct leaders called a Democratic Party hot line set up to advise on such situations.

Party officials recommended they settle the dispute with a coin toss.

A Clinton supporter correctly called “heads” on a quarter flipped in the air, and Clinton received a fifth delegate.

Similar situations were reported elsewhere, including at a precinct in Des Moines, at another precinct in Des Moinesin Newtonin West Branch  and in Davenport. In all five situations, Clinton won the toss.

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