Trump Expands Big Lead In Florida, Up In Ohio

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by JOHN NOLTE9 Mar 2016120

Two pollsters looked at two crucial states and delivered only good news for Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. The GOP Establishment’s stated goal is to stop Trump from winning the number of delegates necessary to outright claim the Republican presidential nomination. The idea is to then go to a brokered convention where Party delegates get to choose whomever they like. In order to do that, Trump must first lose the winner-take-all-states of Ohio and Florida. With just six days to go, these polls show Trump  leading in both.

Florida

According to Quinnipiac, despite 10 days of facing down the GOP Establishment/DC Media Death Star, Trump has actually expanded his lead in Florida. Currently, the billionaire businessman leads favorite sonSen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 45% to 22%, a full +23 points.

Last month, in this same poll, Trump was up by just +16 points over Rubio, 44% to 28%.

Only 6% of voters remain undecided. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) earns 18% support. John Kasich sits at just 8%.

Trump also leads in the demos:

Trump leads Rubio 39 – 27 percent among women and 50 – 17 percent among men. Self-described Tea Party members go 48 percent for Trump, 40 percent for Cruz and 9 percent for Rubio. Trump gets 39 percent of white, born-again evangelicals, with 30 percent for Cruz and 21 percent for Rubio.

In the new CNN poll, Trump is up +16 with 40% to Rubio’s 24%. Cruz sits at 19%, Kasich 5%.

Ohio

The race for Ohio is much tighter.

According to Quinnipiac, Trump leads current Ohio Governor Kasich by +6 points, 38% to 32%. A month ago, Trump led by +5 points, 31% to 26%. Both men are gaining support. The good news for Trump is that his lead has remained stable.

Cruz earns just 16% support. Rubio’s collapse continues with just 9%.

Details:

Cruz gets 38 percent of Ohio Tea Party members, with 33 percent for Trump and 14 percent for Kasich. Kasich gets 32 percent of white, born-again evangelicals, with 29 percent for Trump and 24 percent for Cruz.

Voters 18 to 44 years old go to Trump over Kasich 41 – 24 percent. Trump gets 38 percent of voters 45 to 64 years old to Kasich’s 35 percent. Kasich gets 38 percent of voters over 65 years old to Trump’s 33 percent.

In the new CNN poll, Trump is again up +6 with 41% to Kasich’s 35%. Cruz is in third at 15% and Rubio fourth with just 7%.

Kasich’s third place showing in Michigan Tuesday night might deflate some of his Ohio support. He has virtually no chance of winning the nomination. If his comeback was going to begin, it had to begin in Michigan, a state close to and very similar to Ohio.

If any, whatever kitchen sinks the Establishment and DC Media have left, they had better be more effective than the last ones.

Follow John Nolte on Twitter@NolteNC               

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Kristol Lays Out Strategy to Give White House to Hillary: Trump ‘Shouldn’t Win’

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by JOHN NOLTE2 Mar 20166636

In order to defeat Donald Trump,  The Weekly Standard’s Bill Kristol admits he is prepared to hand Hillary Clinton the Oval Office. On Wednesday’s “Morning Joe,” the Republican Establishment leader laid out his plot to deprive Trump of the 50% of delegates necessary to secure the nomination. From there, the idea is to go into a brokered convention and cut a kamikaze deal that awards enough delegates to an “acceptable” candidate (who will have won far fewer votes, states, and delegates than Trump).

The problem with the Establishment brokering a behind-closed-door deal that hands the nomination to a Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), is that the backlash against the Republican Party is almost certain to hand Hillary Clinton the presidency.

If a bunch of rich, angry GOP elites rob Trump supporters of their victory, the blowback will result in so many voters staying home in November, Hillary wins. As NBC’s Chuck Todd pointed out last night, at this point the delegate math is such that the only way to stop Trump is through this scheme at the convention.

As you’ll see below, that outcome is preferable to Kristol, and by extension it is safe to assume that outcome is also fine with the rest of the Republican Establishment.

JOE SCARBOROUGH: The fact of the matter is that you know there is no historical precedent with someone doing as well as Candidate Trump did yesterday — winning New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, [losing the nomination] has never happened before, and as you know there is a momentum, a forward progress–

BILL KRISTOL: Right, so we have to stop the momentum, I totally agree.

SCARBOROUGH: So that’s my question. There’s no cheering here. I am looking at facts.

KRISTOL: To your credit, you have correctly seen that this was not going to be the historically normal year, and it’s not, so maybe we go–

SCARBOROUGH: So how do you beat him?

KRISTOL: You have to beat him in Florida and Ohio, the first two winner-take-all states, which means there has to be a de facto agreement between the opposition candidates — between the resistance to Trump, which I am proud to be a part of, because I think he’d be a terrible nominee and a terrible president…

SCARBOROUGH: You have the authority to broker that deal right now?

KRISTOL: Well, they need to. They need to defer to Rubio in Florida and probably to Kasich in Ohio, and say, or imply, that if you are a Cruz voter in Ohio, and if you look up the day before the primary and it’s Trump 42%, Kasich 35% — vote for Kasich. And the truth is if Trump doesn’t win Florida and Ohio, it remains very much of an open race. …

Donald Trump [so far] has 35% of the popular vote and 47% of the delegates. That’s a lot better than having 24% of the popular vote and 25% of the delegates, granted. …

JOHN HEILEMANN: Just to go a little further on this topic of what Bill’s advocating: As you talk more and more to Republicans, who will say to you privately and sometimes publicly, that they would rather vote for Hillary Clinton than for Donald Trump, [these are the] people who are going to try to stop him — their attitude is: We know that would happen at a contested convention if we took the nomination away from a Donald Trump [who has won through] a plurality of delegates.

What would happen is that we would likely alienate his supporters and we would likely lose the presidential election. But their position is that it would be better for us to lose the [general] election than to have Donald Trump tear the Party in half as the nominee.

Now you can say that’s suicidal, but that is the posture of people [worried] about the negative effects down ballot.

KRISTOL: And [Trump] would still lose the election. And shouldn’t win the election, So, yeah, I agree.

This is a good time to ask where this scorch-earthed mentality was when America needed it most to stop Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Follow John Nolte on Twitter@NolteNC               

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