Rubio’s Exit Leaves Trump With an Open Path to 1,237 Delegates

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Donald J. Trump’s series of victories on Tuesday extended his delegate lead and forced Senator Marco Rubio of Florida out of the presidential race. Mr. Trump’s path to winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination is not assured, but he is in a strong position.

Here are some ways the Republican nominating contest could unfold. Try adjusting the sliders to see how the outcomes change. Each line in the chart represents one possible outcome. See Democratic scenarios »

If Mr. Trump maintains his current level of support in the remaining races, he would almost certainly secure the nomination.

After Tuesday’s contests, no other candidate retains a real chance of capturing the delegates required to win the nomination outright. Mr. Rubio dropped out, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio is too far behind, and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas would need to win the vast majority of the remaining delegates — a near impossibility.

But Mr. Trump still needs to win most of the remaining delegates to avoid a contested convention.

If he continues his current performance and wins a series of key states — like Arizona, California and New York — he would get the needed delegates.

Mr. Trump will probably need to win California, which has 172 delegates. California is winnable for Mr. Trump, but it could be a difficult state for him. California includes a mix of well-educated voters who could support Mr. Kasich and conservative voters who could support Mr. Cruz.

Exit polls have indicated that most of Mr. Rubio’s support could be distributed to Mr. Trump’s competitors. Say 80 percent of Mr. Rubio's voters go to Mr. Cruz. This would cut into Mr. Trump’s delegate lead.

But even that may not prevent Mr. Trump from winning the key states — like California — that ensure him enough delegates.

This interactive delegate calculator uses each state’s delegate allocation rules, along with estimates of how favorable each district is for each candidate. To compute these estimates, we used a model based on polling, demographics and results from past primaries and caucuses.

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