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Donald Trump is dominating the GOP presidential field in the first three states to vote in the 2016 campaign, including in Iowa where he has extinguished the lead once held by Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC/Marist Poll finds.
In New Hampshire and South Carolina, Mr. Trump leads by double-digit margins. In all three states he is the first choice of more than 30% of people likely to vote in the Republican primaries or caucuses.
“Trump is positioned to run the house in these first three states,” said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute of Public Opinion. “His supporters are committed and plan to turn out.”
The poll suggests Mr. Cruz will be his strongest competitor even if the senator has lost ground in Iowa. Mr. Cruz now stands in second place in all three states including New Hampshire, a place that doesn't typically favor Republicans with his kind of conservative profile.
Among Democrats, the poll points to a roller-coaster ride through the three early-voting states. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont remain deadlocked in Iowa; Mr. Sanders has opened a commanding 57%-38% lead in New Hampshire; in South Carolina, Mrs. Clinton enjoys an even wider 64%-27% spread.
The polls demonstrate that Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton remain their party’s front-runners. While Mrs. Clinton has a rougher road than Mr. Trump in Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina gives her a “firewall,” Mr. Miringoff said.
The Iowa poll found, with less than a week before Monday’s caucuses, that Mr. Trump is the leading Mr. Cruz by 32%-25%, after weeks of pummeling his rival by questioning the Canadian-born senator’s eligibility to be president, his personality and character. Earlier this month, Mr. Cruz had led 28%-24% in Iowa, the state that represents his best shot to block the billionaire businessman.
What’s more, the poll found that Mr. Trump has inspired deep support: three-quarters of Trump backers in Iowa say they are strongly committed to their choice of candidate, compared with only 58% of Cruz supporters. Similar gaps show up among voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Showing quiet improvement in Iowa is Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida who came in third with 18%—a five-point improvement over the early January poll. But he has slipped in New Hampshire, and dropped behind Mr. Cruz to third place. In the Granite State, Mr. Trump leads with 31%, to Mr. Cruz’s 12% and Mr. Rubio’s 11%. The South Carolina poll finds the same three candidates topping the GOP field.
Among Democrats, the Iowa poll is little changed from the neck-and-neck finish found earlier this month. Mrs. Clinton drew 48% to Mr. Sanders’s 45%. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, remains in the low single digits in all three states.
New Hampshire is a growing bastion of support for Sanders, who had led Mrs. Clinton only narrowly earlier this month, largely on the strength of his appeal to independent voters. Now, the latest poll found, Mr. Sanders has a double-digit lead having gained among those who identify themselves as Democrats. Mrs. Clinton’s earlier 18-point advantage among party regulars is now an eight-point edge for Mr. Sanders.
The poll showed how South Carolina is a formidable backstop for Mrs. Clinton. Her steep 64%-27% advantage builds on her strength among the minority voters who dominate the primary electorate. She leads by 57 points among African-American primary voters.
Although the enthusiasm of Mr. Sanders’s campaign crowds has suggested a big enthusiasm gap between the two Democratic candidates, the poll found that about the same share—roughly three-quarters—of Sanders and Clinton supporters have a high level of commitment to their candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire.
And in South Carolina, more Clinton supporters than Sanders supporters—68% to 58%—say they are firmly committed to their candidate choice.
The stakes for both candidates are higher in Iowa.
“If Clinton carries Iowa, she can absorb a defeat to Sanders who has a home-field advantage in New Hampshire, and then move on to South Carolina,” said Mr. Miringoff. “But if Sanders carries Iowa and then New Hampshire, this contest will, indeed, be a marathon.”
The Iowa poll, conducted Jan. 24-26 included interviews with 426 likely Democratic caucusgoers, for whom the margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. It also included 450 likely Republican caucusgoers and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
The New Hampshire poll, conducted Jan. 17-23, included interviews with 568 likely Democratic primary voters and 612 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error was 4.1 percentage points for the Democrats and 4.0 percentage points for the Republicans.
The South Carolina poll, also conducted Jan. 17-23, included interviews with 718 likely Republican primary voters and 446 likely Democratic primary voters. The margin of error was 3.7 percentage points for the Republicans and 4.6 percentage points for the Democrats.
Write to Janet Hook atjanet.hook@wsj.com
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