BREAKING: Trump up by 2 points in Iowa

thehill.com

Donald Trump leads Ted Cruz by 2 percentage points in a new poll from Iowa, suggesting a tightening presidential race ahead of the state’s Feb. 1 caucuses.

Trump leads the GOP field, with 31 percent support, in Quinnipiac University's new poll, followed closely by Cruz's 29 percent. That slim lead is within the poll’s 4-point margin of error.

Voters view Cruz more favorably than they view Trump, however, and more are open to the possibility of voting for him, according to the new findings. 

This is only the third poll of the last 11 in Iowa in which Trump is on top, according to aggregation by RealClearPolitics. Other recent polls have shown Cruz in first place.

Trump in the last week has stepped up attacks on Cruz’s birthplace. Cruz was born in Canada, and Trump argues Democrats could make a case that he is not qualified to be president because he is not a natural born citizen.

Cruz was born to an American mother, and his campaign has argued he is qualified to be president just like 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain, who was born in the Panama Canal zone. Legal experts have long agreed that the Constitution's natural born citizen requirement includes those born to U.S. citizens outside the country.

In the poll, Cruz won more than one-third of the support of white, evangelical Republicans, an important constituency for him that typically makes up the majority of GOP caucusgoers. Trump attracted 27 percent with that group, and Marco Rubio received 13 percent, but other candidates won more than one-tenth of the evangelical vote.

Cruz outperformed Trump among people with college educations, with an income between $50,000 and $100,000, and who consider themselves very conservative. On the flip side, Trump did better among those without a college degree, and those making less than $50,000 and more than $100,000.

In the Quinnipiac poll, Rubio sits in third place, with 15 percent support, followed by Ben Carson, at 7 percent, and Chris Christie, at 4 percent. Jeb Bush has slipped to 3 percent, tied with Mike Huckabee, who won the caucuses in 2008. John Kasich and Rand Paul scored 2 percent; Carly Fiorina and Rick Santorum received 1 percent.

Quinnipiac surveyed 602 likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa between Jan. 5 and Jan. 10.

Updated at 1:11 p.m.

Media Chatter: House Speaker Paul Ryan Is The Establishment’s Next Challenger to Face Trump

Getty Images

by NEIL MUNRO11 Jan 2016205

House Speaker Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) may become the GOP establishment’s 2016 candidate who can snatch the nomination or the leadership of the GOP away from pro-American populist Donald Trump, according to D.C. media chatter.

But the move — if it happens — may be too late.

Any fight between the increasingly popularTrump and the decreasingly popular Ryan would mark a last-ditch effort by the GOP’s establishment-business-wing to deny any political power to its conservative voters, likely splitting the party just before the elections that will decide which party gets to control the White House and the U.S. Senate. It might also damage Ryan’s long-term career plans, which are already being undermined by his unpopular policies and his complete failure in the 2016 budget negotiations, despite his support in theestablishment media.

The media suggestions for Ryan suddenly appeared Sunday, Jan 10.

In a Daily Beast article about the media’s desire for a political fight at the GOP convention, veteran reporter Jeff Greenfield casually suggested the GOP’s establishment might sabotage Trump at the last moment by using the convention to give the nomination to Ryan, who was defeated in 2012 when he ran as the vice-president candidate with Gov. Mitt Romney.

“If party elders were to meet behind closed doors and deliver the nomination to, say, House Speaker Paul Ryan, that would qualify as a ‘brokered’ outcome,” Greenfield wrote Jan. 10.

Tai Kopan, a writer for CNN, floated Ryan as the media-backed silver bullet against Trump during a Jan. 10 article about a weekend event that showcased Ryan’s much-touted efforts to win more votes from lower-income Americans.

In rare joint appearances, six Republican presidential candidates gathered here on Saturday to talk about ways to address poverty in America, speaking to voters in the crucial early primary state and beyond about why the GOP has the best answers.

House Speaker Paul Ryan and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) were moderators, and they questioned former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in small groups about how to address systemic problems at the Kemp Forum on Expanding Opportunity….

‘We’re the only nation founded on an idea: The condition of your birth does not determine the outcome of your life,’ Ryan said at the outset… The candidates heaped him with plenty of praise along the way.

“The country’s better off that you’re the speaker,” Bush said to Ryan as his panel began…

It wasn’t just the candidates that took notice. After the day wrapped, Gerry Gudgel, a school administrator from Columbia who says he’s looking for a “compassionate conservative” and likes the governors in the race along with Marco Rubio said he wouldn’t question Ryan in the field.

“If the Republican Convention went into gridlock, I think Paul Ryan, somehow, put him on the ballot right away,” Gudgel said.

On CBS’s “Face The Nation,” panelist Susan Page, the bureau chief for USA Today, also suggested Jan. 10 that Ryan could save the day for the establishment by becoming the fall-back GOP leader, operating out of Congress.

I wonder if what you might see happening is the establishment Republican say, yes, Trump’s our nominee, let’s talk about Paul Ryan. Let’s make him the face of the GOP. Let’s talk about what Congress is going to do.

You remember what happened in 1996 when establishment Republicans decided that Bob Dole was going to lose and Newt Gingrich started making deals with a Democratic president, Bill Clinton, and it was harmful for Dole, but they had decided he was going to lose that election. They tried to find — go in a different direction to save the party and I just wonder if we might see that happen this time.

A Ryan challenge against Trump would be very risky for Ryan and his establishment backers.

Trump is already winning enthusiastic support from many of the blue-collar, mid-western voters that are key to any GOP win in 2016. Moreover, he’s winning those crucial votes by opposing large-scale migration.

But Ryan has strongly backed open-borders and amnesty since his first entry into politics in the 1990s.  In 2014, Ryan even tried to pass an amnesty bill, but was blocked by Republican base voters. In 2015, Ryan sneaked a plan into the must-pass 2016 budget that allows U.S. employers to quickly hire at least 100,000 low-wage foreign-workers in 2016 instead of Americans, likely helping to crash his brief popularity among the GOP’s base, despitemedia support.

Still, a Ryan challenge is possible, wrote Mickey Kaus, an anti-amnesty progressive and an influential blogger. “Ryan Scenario Not Insane (Unfortunately),” he wrote Jan. 10, saying:

1) Ryan’s running a self-promotional Speakership not unlike a national campaign; 2) Given his perceived betrayals of the Party’s base, he might not be looking at such long tenure as Speaker anyway; 3) Politicsmoves fast these days; 4) Ryan has plenty of seemingly infatuated cheerleaders in the press; 5) What if none of the establishment non-Trumps catches on… 6) Maybe there are no more party elders around to manipulate Republicans in back rooms in order to achieve their preferred outcome. But that sure seemed to be how Ryan became Speaker two months ago. … 7) It might be the only way for the GOP/K Street Establishment to get its precious immigration amnesty.

Ryan’s self-promotion was showcased by an friendly Jan. 10 interview with CBS’s John Dickerson, who nudged Ryan to contrast himself to Trump and his populist, pro-American, low-immigration policy.

Ryan took the bait, and tried to distance himself from Trump with a series of buzz-words, including “inclusive” and “inspirational.”

“Inclusive” is typically used by GOP establishment candidates to call for pro-amnesty policies that are supposed to attract votes from the low-income Hispanic-Americans who would be hit hardest by another wave of low-wage job competitors. The term “inspirational,” is often used by establishment GOP leaders — especially Jeb Bush — to call for a campaign that doesn’t challenge any core priorities for Democrats, such as greater immigration. Also, noticeably, Ryan did not say he would remain as House Speaker throughout 2016.

DICKERSON: Last night, I was at a Donald Trump rally in Rock Hill, South Carolina, and there were about 6,000 or 7,000 people. And the crowd reaction was very loud on the following things: Donald Trump’s opposition to the Asian trade deal, which you support, his opposition to last year’s budget at the end of the year, budget which you support, his opposition to undocumented workers having any kind of pathway to anything, legal status or citizenship, and also to any tinkering with entitlements.

The crowd didn’t just clap politely. They went crazy. How does a Republican Party get together when you have a set of ideas that are totally antithetical to all of those people who were cheering so loudly?

RYAN: We’re a big tent party. I think what we do as leaders is, we say who we are, what we believe, and where we want to lead, and let the people decide.

Look, that’s just the way I see this thing. I really think the country is on a bad path, a dangerous path. I think we could lose what is so unique about our country, this American idea, the condition of your birth doesn’t determine the outcome of your life. We believe in growth and prosperity and security.

All those things are in real deep jeopardy. And so, yes, do I agree or disagree with various candidates on various issues? Of course I do. We’re individuals. But can we offer the country a really clear and compelling choice that’s not divisive, but inclusive, that’s inspirational, that’s pro-growth? That’s what I’m trying to do. And that’s what I think we can do. And so…

DICKERSON: Does the campaign make it harder to do that, though?

RYAN: I don’t think the campaign makes it harder, because this is a primary season.

What’s happening right now are, these candidates are trying to distinguish themselves from among the same party, from — over the same voters. I think primaries inevitably have this kind of friction. But once you get through the primary, I think we unify as a conservative movement. We unify as a cause. And we go out and we try and win converts to conservatism. We go out and we try to give the country a really clear choice.

But that clear choice seems to have been made — and its name is Donald Trump.

Frontrunner Trump and runner-up challengers Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Dr. ben Carson — are getting 65 percent of the votes in the GOP’s primaries. There’s no sign that Ryan can swoop in late, presumably after the defeat of establishment champions — including Gov. Jeb Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio, Gov Chris Christie and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) — to snatch the nomination from Trump for the establishment.

But, as Kaus noted, Ryan did snatch the House Speakership from nascent conservative challengers after the run byRep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) failed.

Read More Stories About:

Big Government, 2016 Presidential Race,Immigration, Donald Trump, Paul Ryan

Hillary Clinton's Lead Over Sanders Nearly Vanishes

news.investors.com

With just 21 days until the presidential primaries officially begin in Iowa, Hillary Clinton's support among Democrats nationally has taken a serious tumble, falling eight points to 43%, according to the latest IBD/TIPP Poll. Support for her chief rival, Bernie Sanders, rose six points to 39%.

As a result, Clinton's lead over Sanders, which had been 18 points, is now just four points.

Other polls have shown the race tightening in Iowa, which holds its caucuses on Feb. 1, and New Hampshire, which has its primary eight days later. Two recent New Hampshire surveys haveSanders in the lead, and the latest NBC poll in Iowa has Sanders just three points behind Clinton.

But the IBD/TIPP Poll is the first to show the race significantly tightening nationwide.

Clinton Goes On Attack

Clinton, in response to her sagging poll numbers, has started to turn up the heat on Sanders, after all but ignoring the self-described socialist whose maverick campaign has been surprisingly resilient. CNN reported over the weekend that "a sense of anxiety is cascading through Hillary Clinton's campaign" over Sanders' gains.

Clinton recently attacked Sanders on his position on gun control, and released a campaign ad in Iowa and New Hampshire asserting that she is "the only one" who can beat whoever the Republican Party nominates.

And on Monday, in a clear attempt to appeal to Sanders' supporters, Clinton announced in Iowa her plans to impose a 4% "fair share surcharge" on incomes over $5 million. Sanders has proposed a series of tax hikes on the rich in the name of "income equality."

Clinton in recent weeks also has decried drug "price gouging" and attacked big merger deals, despite receiving heavy Wall Street donations, to try to shore up her left flank.

The IBD/TIPP Poll shows that regionally, Clinton saw her support drop most in the Northeast (where it fell to 36% from 50%) and the West (37% down from 49%). Sanders now holds the lead in both places. Clinton support also tumbled among suburban voters, dropping to 39% from last a month's 50%. And she has lost backing among moderate Democrats, falling to 44% from 58%. Sanders picked up 10 points among moderates, to 37%.

Trump Extends GOP Lead

On the GOP side, Donald Trump extended his lead over his GOP rivals, with 34% now backing the real estate tycoon, up from 27%. His support is now nearly equal to his three closest rivals combined.

MSNBC PANEL GOES OFF THE RAILS: “COMPARING BILL CLINTON TO BILL COSBY IS WRONG!”

The rhetoric on Monday’s Morning Joe turned heated between cohost Joe Scarborough and Harold Ford during a discussion on the newly-renewed conversation of President Bill Clinton’s past

Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina cut from main GOP debate lineup

news.yahoo.com

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former technology executive Carly Fiorina will not appear on the primetime debate stage when the Republican Party's 2016 presidential class faces off later this week in South Carolina.

Debate host Fox Business Network announced the debate lineup Monday evening, dealing a blow to both candidates three weeks before Iowa's leadoff presidential caucuses. Just seven candidates — the smallest Republican group so far — will be featured in Thursday's 9 p.m. ET main event, based on criteria established by the network that relied on recent polls.

Real estate mogul Donald Trump, the leader in most recent polls, will again appear center stage in the debate. He'll be joined on stage by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Florida Gov. Marco Rubio, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

Paul and Fiorina were invited to participate in a 6 p.m. ET "undercard" debate, although Paul said he would skip the second-tier faceoff.

"An artificial designation as being in the second tier is something we can't accept," he told CNN on Monday. "I won't participate in anything that's not the first tier."

Before the lineup was announced, Paul strategist Doug Stafford said: "This race is hitting its final stretch and Rand Paul is a serious contender for the nomination. He expects to be on the stage this week because he has qualified to do so and because he has a top-tier campaign." Stafford noted that Paul has qualified for primary ballots in every state, has more than 1,000 precinct captains in Iowa, and has a 500-person leadership team in New Hampshire.

Fox Business Network said the primetime lineup would include the top six candidates in the five most recent national polls in addition to any candidate in the top five in either Iowa or New Hampshire.

Others invited to the undercard event include former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

Working-Class Hero: Trump Expands To 20-Point Lead Among White Blue-Collars Vs. Hillary Clinton

Scott Olson/Getty Images

by MIKE FLYNN10 Jan 20164359

New polling data from Reuters finds a nationwide toss-up 2016 contest between GOP frontrunner Donald Trump and Democrat frontrunner Hillary Clinton — but he’s beating her by 20 points, 46 percent to 26 percent, among white working-class voters.

That’s up from a five-point lead in mid-December.  Trump’s January lead is so huge, in fact, that Hillary just barely edges out the option “don’t know.”

In fact, he is beating Hillary Clinton among all working-class voters, regardless of race. Trump leads Hillary by five points among all voters earning between $25,000 and $75,000.

Just among whites, Trump gets the support of almost half of all white voters who earn between $25,000 and $75,000 a year. Among white working class voters who are married, Trump’s lead over Clinton expands to 27 points. His lead is 30 points among married, white working class voters with children.

Married, with children, is one of the most determinative factors in predicting how someone will vote. While most political chatter is obsessed over the alleged “gender gap” that leaves Democrats with  a large lead among women, the reality is that any gap in how men or women vote is determined by marriage and parenting. White women who are married, generally, vote exactly the same as white men who are married. Any perceived “gender gap” is due largely to martial status and race, with majorities of both sexes voting overwhelmingly for Republicans. Single white women and single men are more inclined to vote Democrat.

There was a time that Democrats were the party of the working class, but those days are long behind us. Even among white voters, who are the most Republican of American ethnic or racial groups, Trump does worse as earnings rise. Trump’s lead among whites earning $100,000 a year or more is just 9 points, 42 percent to 33 percent.

Political pundits across the spectrum have paid too little attention to the ill-fated history of the Bobby Kennedy Project. Launched with great fanfare after the 2012 elections by the Center for American Progress and other progressive groups, the project was meant to reverse the Democrat party’s long slide with white working class voters.

The project was founded on the realization that, for now, the demographic numbers spell trouble for Democrats. In 2012, the black voter share of the electorate was higher than the black share of the population. This historic turnout was no doubt due to the presence of Barack Obama on the ballot. Other Democrat candidates can’t count on this heavy turnout.

The Hispanic share of the electorate is growing, but it was still just 10 percent of the total turnout in 2012. Even if Democrats continue to dominate this demographic, it isn’t enough to offset a leveling of black turnout and continued losses among white working-class voters.

But the Bobby Kennedy Project was abandoned just months after it was launched. It was doomed, partly by poor fundraising, but also by an awareness by Democrat strategists that the party would have to abandon certain progressive policies to reconnect with white working-class voters. This trade-off was viewed as an existential threat to the Democrats’ progressive-led coalition.

Today’s Democrat Party is no longer held together by an alliance of people worried about income and economic-class, as it was under FDR or LBJ. Instead, the party’s diverse components are held together by compatible political goals in their mutual fights for race, sex and gender related goals.  Basically, the party’s leaders have discarded the Marxist politics of poverty vs. wealth, and have embraced the quasi-Marxist politics of oppressed cultural minorities vs. cultural oppressors.

For many years, this new politics — often summarized as “political correctness” — was confined to infuriating, but ultimately harmless, torturing of the language.

But when Democrat politicians, however, are unable to admit publicly that America is threatened by a strain of radical Islam, for example, it becomes dangerous. When Democrats race to the microphone to condemn a police officer even before full facts about a shooting are known, it drives a real wedge between politicians and everyday people.

On December 20th, Donald Trump’s lead over Hillary among white working class voters was just 5 points. Between then and now, Trump has amplified his call to temporarily ban Muslim refugees, doubled-down on building a border wall and called out Hillary over Bill’s past transgressions with women.

Trump, in other words, threw aside political-correctness and raised troubling issues about the Clintons that the polite political establishment had refused to raise. He now leads Hillary by 20 points among white working-class voters.

The truth shall set a Republican campaign free.

Read More Stories About:

Big Government, Donald Trump, poll,polling, Cultural Marxism, white, working class, progressive

Is the Bible's description of heaven real? What near death experiences tell us

FAITH

By Pastor John Burke

Published January 08, 2016

FoxNews.com

Facebook Twitter livefyre Email

NOW PLAYING

'Imagine Heaven' author wants you to kick off 2016 with hope

The Bible has always claimed that Heaven is real, and now thousands who have died and returned believe it too. 

After researching nearly 1,000 accounts of people who died, were resuscitated, and lived to report a near death experience (NDE) of the afterlife, I wrote my book"Imagine Heaven." In it, I showcase 120 stories that illustrate the commonalities of these accounts, correlating them with an in-depth look at the Bible’s picture of Heaven. What results is an exhilarating, imaginative journey into the life to come—an encouraging perspective for us all as we enter into a new year.

ADVERTISEMENT

When I examined the similarities of the actual NDE reports across ages and cultures, they affirm each other and scripture. These are accounts told by surgeons, college professors, commercial airline pilots, bank presidents—people who have nothing to gain, but credibility to lose. Their experiences align with reports from around the globe, from children, even from blind people who claim to “see” this same awe-inspiring picture of Heaven.

People report that when they clinically died, they found themselves above their bodies in a new body. They felt more alive than they had ever felt before—not only with five senses, but more like 50 senses. They describe the spiritual body outlined in scripture (I Corinthians 15, Philippians 3:20-21).

Additionally, many met loved ones previously deceased, reminding us of the great reunion Jesus promised to his close friends in John 14. 

People often describe a place of exquisite beauty, not unlike the earth, with mountains, forests, flowers, and streams, yet alive in new dimensions of time and space—illuminated by a light that radiates life and love. Even a few NDErs who were blind from birth also “see” the same exquisite beauty. They describe this same mystical light that doesn’t shine on, but out of, everything, affirming the Bible’s explanation that there is no sun or moon in Heaven, but the glory of God is its light (Revelation 21:23-24).

Around the globe, people encounter a brilliant Person of Light, brighter than the sun, yet not difficult to look at in Heaven. People intuitively know he is God and say he exudes an unconditional love unlike anything experienced on earth. He knows their every thought and motive, yet they feel so at home with him, they never want to leave. The biblical writers Daniel, Paul, John, and others also describe this same Person of Light (Daniel 10:4-6, Acts 9:3-5, Revelation 1).

In the presence of God, many people experience a life review—a panoramic, three-dimensional re-living of their entire life in an instant. Every thought, motive, and action is laid bare, and they experience the profound way their actions affected others. In the presence of unconditional love, they see all the good and evil, cause and effect, and they realize it is love that matters most to God. This is consistent with the teachings of Moses and Jesus, who say that loving God first and loving people second sums up all the commandments (Matthew 22:36-40).

Because some may find all this hard to believe, I also research skeptical doctors who were convinced by their patients reporting verifiable observations while outside their lifeless bodies. The corroborative evidence of details reported has been chronicled in academic journals, including the Journal of the American Medical Association and The Lancet. "Imagine Heaven" explores all these experiences in great detail, so that by the end of the book, you feel like you’ve been there.

Ironically, some Christians have dismissed NDEs as tales of hallucination or the last flicker of a dying brain. However, I believe most of these are divine experiences—gifts from God—pointing us to the hope of Heaven as detailed throughout scripture. 

This hope is something we can grab hold of today as we review our lives and set goals for the new year--to change the way we view and live our lives, to love other people and make a difference in their lives, as we set our sights on our futures in Heaven. 

John Burke is the New York Times bestselling author of "Imagine Heaven" and the founding pastor of Gateway Church in Austin, Texas. To explore more, visit ImagineHeaven.net.